People continue to be baffled by Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn -- OBP and home run machine -- just signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Nationals. Aside from it being the Nationals, good for him. As a player the majority of the baseball talking/writing heads continually rip on, I love him.

But still, "His defense sucks! All he can do it hit homers. Walks are borrrrrrrrrring."

I pretty much summed up this article.

One would surmise that Dunn will be used to hit in front of or behind potential all-star Ryan Zimmerman, giving the Nationals a solid run producing combo in the middle of their lineup. However, when breaking down the numbers, this might not be the case. Dunn, despite his large OBP and 40+ homer potential is of minimal value on a club like the Nationals.

Forty home runs. Minimal value. There's nowhere else to go but up from here!

Dudes who hit 40+ home runs in 2008 = Two. Dunn and Howard.

That's actually the opposite of minimal value. Especially at $10 mil/season.

First, the idea that Dunn’s lofty OBP holds any sort of amazing value is blatantly false.

Ohhhhhhh doctor.

Dunn -- who is only 28 years old, mind you -- has a career .381 OBP. That's 21st among all active players. Higher than Utley (who is also older), Teixeira and Miggy Cabrera.

The idea that a top-twenty OBP you can get at a discount price is not of amazing value is blatantly false.

For his career Dunn has an OBP of .381 but when you subtract his home run total he has only scored 421 runs in 1,552 times on base.

While we're at it, let's subtract the best thing each player does in baseball.*

When Reyes doesn't steal a base he only scores 16% of time.
When Howard doesn't hit a home run he only scores 32% of the time he's on base.
When Pujols doesn't do everything awesomely Tony La Russa falls asleep.

An exercise in stupidity? You bet.

Oh, and runs scored is teammate dependent. That's why Dunn is awesome, he drives himself in. Sure, he may not be a "team player" in that he doesn't sit at second base clapping for Ryan Freel to drive him in. But who cares.

Of those 421 runs, 185 of them came after he walked. Dunn has drawn 797 walks in his career, meaning he has scored after a walk only 23% of the time. Of those 185 runs scored after a walk, Dunn has advanced (or been advanced by a teammate) into scoring position on 130 of them (70%). The point is that, unless he gets into scoring position, Adam Dunn’s walks are good for a run scored less than 25% of the time.

All this shit comes down to this: It isn't Dunn's fault.

All he can do is A) walk to first and hope some scrub can drive him in (note: sorry he can't steal two bags.) or B) hit a freakin' home run and drive himself in.

Either way, he sucks.

It is painfully obvious when looking at Dunn’s stolen base and doubles totals that he does a poor job of getting into scoring position when not belting the long ball. So, the question becomes, who is going to be moving him along?

Please tell me it's Christian "The Black David Eckstein" Guzman.

If he hits third (which Dunn’s done in only 125 of his 1,131 career games) then he’s a good chance of being advanced by Zimmerman, who is a double-hitting machine. However, Zimmerman has only hit in the clean-up slot 69 times in his career and usually hits third himself. If Dunn hits fourth, several of Zimmerman’s doubles will be wasted as Dunn does two things very well – walk and/or strike out.

This, this right here, is ridiculous. "He's only batted third 125 times! He'll go fucking crazy if he's moved one slot in the lineup!"

Look, it's not like he's going from playing left field to catching. He's moving (theoretically) from third to fourth, something hitters do all the time. Dunn isn't going to suddenly forget how to OBP .380 and hit 40 bombs because you moved him one spot in the lineup.

This also feels like Mike Walsh really wanted to write clogging the bases. Just do it! It feels so good!

The only way to squeeze any value out of Dunn’s OBP is to hit him second and put contact hitters like Zimmerman and Cristian Guzman

Woooo!

behind him in order to advance him into scoring position. Otherwise, Dunn’s on base percentage is just a number which has led to no viable run production outside of his home run potential. This has been a consistent problem for Dunn over the last eight seasons.

Again, not his fault. Sorry he can't walk to first, sacrifice himself over, steal third and score on passed ball, but hey, 40 homers and a .900 OPS comes with a price.

Dunn has driven in only 328 runners in 969 at bats with runners in scoring position (34%) for his career when not hitting a homer. Again, Dunn is outperformed by someone like Jose Reyes in this department. Reyes, despite a career slugging percentage of .436 (compared to Dunn’s .518) has driven in 235 runners in 632 at bats with men in scoring position (37%). In 2008 Reyes drove in 52 teammates; Dunn drove in 60. For the season Dunn had an OPS of .899 while Reyes posted a low mark of .772. Still, Reyes drove in only eight fewer men (minus homers) and scored 58 more runs than Dunn despite a 50 point difference in OBP and a 127 point difference in OPS.

This is so skewed it's a joke. You'd think he'd pick a comparable hitter to Dunn to make these numbers seem like it's a Dunn's fault. But no, how about we go with Jose Reyes, who hit 16 home runs in 2008. Subtracting homers from Reyes does nothing because he bats leadoff. In fact, 11 of his homers came with the bases empty. So there! *sticks tongue out*

Let's look at the RISP numbers for both:

Reyes - 144 PA/33 H/4 HR/2 2B/4 3B/53 RBI/21 BB/0.844 OPS
Dunn - 182 PA/32 H/11 HR/3 2B/0 3B/65 RBI/39 BB/0.929 OPS

This entire argument is also crazy because it's not like Dunn = Reyes. One of the bets SS in baseball who makes a cajillion dollars versus a top-twenty OF free-agent. It's not like the Nats had a choice between them.

Completely different types of players.

Dunn’s career OPS is .899- Good.

Dunn’s other career totals; 201 doubles, 59 stolen bases, eight triples while batting a mere .225 with 329 strikeouts in 969 at-bats (34% of the time) with runners in scoring position- Bad.

Really? You're picking steals and triples here? How about sac flies and infield hits while we're at it?

How about his NL home run rankings from '04-'08, which go 2, 4, 7, 3, 2? Or walks from '02-'08, 3, 6, 3, 2, 5, 1? Or how he's in the top 25 among actives in OPS+, BB, OPS, and OBP? And not getting paid like it?

Adam Dunn is really, really, really good at hitting homers and getting to first base. He won't save the Nats (who can?), but he'll hit 40 homers and walk 110+ times, all the while people admonish him for not scoring runs or something else dumb.

Oh well.

*numbers made up

The Twins are a no-trying, worthless baseball club

The Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox played the second straight one-game playoff for a chance to play the Rays in the ALDS. Exciting stuff. One game to rule them all and in the darkness bind them.

Scott Jensen has a history of hating the thrifty (because they have to be) Twins. Even saying they do not care about winning - especially not in the playoffs.

But his latest is one step away from just typing "I HATE THE TWINS FOR NO GOOD REASON!"

TWINS WON'T WIN - OR AT LEAST THEY DON'T DESERVE TO

I can buy that the Twins aren't that good. But they ended the season tied with the Sox and had a better run diff. (84 to 82) and earned this position.

The Twins won’t win tonight against the White Sox. Well, I can’t guarantee that. Anything can happen after all. But here are three reasons why the Twins are unlikely to win.

Bet hedged.

1. Ron Gardenhire. Gardenhire is a great regular season manager. And I mean great. My measure for managerial greatness is how well a team does relative to its overall talent level. And thanks to ownership miserliness since Gardenhire’s hire in 2002, the Twins talent level has been far less than it should have been. Yet Gardenhire has been continually able to get good to great performance out of his team.

I would argue that Gardenhire is an OK coach that doesn't have any magical talent extraction powers, but does manage his team well.

Unfortunately, Gardenhire has a managerial form of the yips. He’s not a pressure guy.

Ohhh I getcha. Sweeping the White Sox from Sept. 23-25 was utterly gutless. Joe Torre would have Super Swept them, in which you pick up double games in the standings, unless the opponent performs a physical challenge, which the White Sox would not have. What a goddamn choker.

Witness Game 4 of the 2004 American League Divisional Series. Down two games to one in a must-win game, Gardenhire was sitting on a 5-1 lead after six, when he inexcusably removed ace Johan Santana – after just 87 pitches. Then Juan Rincon, Joe Nathan (used improperly in the eighth) and Kyle Lohse blew it and the Twins lost 6-5. Series over. Maybe Gardenhire has learned. I doubt it.

Removing Santana - probably not that smart. But his pen was nuts that year. Rincon struck out 106 in 82 IP and Nathan had 89 K in 72 IP with a 0.98 WHIP. And what a moron, using his closer not in the ninth to get that ever valuable save.

Also, one example out of 1151 games managed.

2. Nick Blackburn. He won 11 games in his rookie campaign and had a league average ERA. But I expect him to get hit hard tonight. Why? Second half ERA of 4.98; first half ERA of 3.65. Looks like a classic case of someone who had success because the league wasn’t familiar with him. My guess is that the White Sox get to him the second time around the lineup.

I've got nothing here other than that the game finished in a 1-0 score.

3. Karma. Hey – ballplayers are superstitious and believe in stuff like this, so why can’t I.

Because you're a writer and should be level-headed about these things? And question mark.

If the Twins hadn’t traded Santana, they wouldn’t be in this situation; they would have won the division by five games. And then they would have been able to set up their divisional rotation with Santana number one and Scott Baker number two.

Wowwwwwwww. The ghost of Santana is going to come back from the grave of the Mets - who were eliminated earlier than the Twins - and knock a sure Denard Span homer back into the field of play, "Angels in the Outfield" style.

And the Twins also could not have afforded $29,385,729,485 million to pay Johan. And they were within one run of making the playoffs.

It really doesn’t matter what the Twins do tonight – or possibly in the playoffs. Twins ownership has already won. They didn’t spend the money – again – yet were good enough to keep people buying tickets, tuning in and buying the merchandise. Their meal has been served. Anything else is just gravy for them.

Holy shit. The venom comes out. Those greedy bastard Twins. Wisely squeezing the last capitalist drop out of their baseball team by getting to a 163rd game of the season and purposely losing to continue their run of not making the playoffs.

Seriously folks, constantly winning and putting a good team on the field without spending hundreds of millions on Carlos Silva or Erik Bedard should be praised, not met with hatred.

Not hustling negates everything great you do

You guessed it, this is about Manny.

I await the torrent of bird-brained articles in the coming hours with baited breath, but the Dugout Central has given me this little nugget:

What is so bad now that has Manny not hustling? This lack of hustle and work ethic, regardless of his career numbers, is inexcusable. For those who think that it doesn’t matter, you are DEAD WRONG.

All of the positives that Manny brings to the field are negated by any single instance of non-hustle or possible self sabotage that he might have had for the Red Sox.

No matter how well he hits, you cannot take the chance that Manny, in an instance of “defiance”, will not run hard down the first baseline possibly costing you a game. Or the playoffs. Or the World Series.

Line breaks and color mine. That fuscia part is grade A certified, FDA approved bullshit.

Here's a theortical choice, one in which Mr. Thomas Wayne must pick player B.

Player A's absurd line: .412 average/97 homers/240 RBI with a 2.012 OPS. Doesn't RUN OUT GROUNDERS SOMETIMES.

Player B's line: .012 average in 600+ PA/0 homers/21 RBI (all sac hits) with a 0.300 OPS. Runs out every grounder and hugs his teammates.

Bring it Wayne's Groundout Runners. Me and my Hall of Fame Hitters Who Are Kinda Sorta Lazy During Inconsequential Plays will kick your ass!

Also, let me paint a situation in which not running out a grounder at first will cost a team the World Series:

It's game seven of the World Series between the Manny-energized Dodgers and upstart Tampa Bay Rays (ratings a go-go!). It's the bottom of the ninth, tied 5-5. Manny comes to the plate with runners on first and third and one out. Johnathan Broxton looks in to deliver the pitch, praying for a double play. He knows Manny won't hustle, so it's not out the realm of possibility. He goes to the set, and lets one fly. Manny eyes it and swings mightily...

It's a home run! The Dodgers win! All thanks to Manny "Everyday I'm Hustlin'" Ramirez!

See. It'll never fucking happen. Ever.

Varitek is (not at all) the majors' most valuable catcher

At the dugoutcentral.com, a site I write for off and on, one Aaron Schwartz claims the opposite - that Jason Varitek is baseball's most valuable catcher.

Whaaa?

Varitek is undeniably the most valuable catcher in the league.

I will deny that, as will most baseball fans with things we like to call a "brain."

Without reading further, one can assume what this piece will entail. Varitek is great at "handling the pitching staff" and "making the young pitchers comfortable." Four no-hitters? He's the sole reason for those. Hitting the baseball well and regularly? That's for roid-heads. Heartless machines only concerned with "numbers" and "stats." Not in my baseball!

He has proven game in and game out that he deserves to wear the coveted “C” (captain) on his chest.

Proven that he deserves to be the captain: .268/.350/.472 with 11 2B, 6 HR, 15 BB, 37 K

Catching four no-no's, throwing out 26.9% of base stealers (tied for tenth in baseball) mentoring the young staff, all that makes up for that offensive void ten-fold.

And thanks for clearing up what the "C" means.

Not once has Varitek ever taken credit for coaxing these rare feats out of his pitchers.

Has any catcher ever done this? Ever?

"Yeah, Nolan Ryan pitched a helluva game, but it was all me out there, catching like a mofo."

The first three no-hitters caught by the Red Sox captain were Hideo Nomo in 2001, Derek Lowe in 2002 and Clay Buchholz in 2007.

All of them (except Buchholz, stay tuned) prime examples of no-hitters being batshit luck.

A fifth one was only one out away when Curt Schilling shook off Varitek’s sign and subsequently gave up a hit to Shannon Stewart with two outs in the 9th inning last year.

Asshole. Who would have the gall to shake off a catcher of Varitek's captain-iness?

I watched this game and Schilling shook off Varitek multiple times, I think even in the ninth inning. If he'd have shook him off and gotten the perfect game, would Varitek be the majors' least valuable catcher?

Catching a no-hitter once can be attributed to good luck, but catching a no-hitter four times is a testament to skill.

Catching a no-hitter once can be attributed to good luck, but catching a no-hitter four times is a testament super-duper good luck.

Fixed.

Jason Varitek is a true model for a catcher doing his homework. Before every game Varitek can be found with his head buried in the scouting reports of the opposing team’s hitters. He not only knows what every hitter is trying to do in any given at bat, he also knows the hitter’s strengths and weaknesses.

No other catcher in baseball does this. None. None of them have the guts, the heart, the will, the captain power of Jason "screw Johnny Bench" Varitek to actually study the hitters they are going up against, which is also known as doing their job.

Baseball protocol dictates that the catcher runs to the mound to congratulate the pitcher after an achievement like a no-hitter. In Jason Varitek’s case it should be the pitcher running to congratulate the catcher.

But he would never do that because he doesn't want the spotlight! Varitek plays the game the right way, takes it one play at a time, does his homework, cliche cliche cliche cliche cliche.

For the record, catchers I would take right now over Varitek:
Martin
Martinez
Either (non-Jose) Molina brother
McCann
Mauer
every catcher with the last name beginning with M
Soto