Closers Folly

It’s the bottom of the 8th; your team is down by one run on the road. The opponent is threatening with men on the corners and one out. Your 4-5-6 hitters are due up in the top of the ninth, keep the deficit at one and you’ve got a punchers chance. A three run home run later, the game is out of reach. The Boston Red Sox faced almost this exact scenario a few nights ago while playing the Detroit Tigers. The Red Sox lost that game. Julian Tavarez gave up a three run home run to Magglio Ordonez that quickly put the game on ice. But it wasn’t Julian’s fault. Or Magglios’, or Varitek’s, or anyone’s fault.

The closer is a relatively new “position” in baseball history. Someone realized that having a pitcher at the end of close games was very valuable in winning games. Eventually the save was invented to reward these end of the game specialists. Whether you agree with the save stat or not it is undeniably a huge part of the game today. When bullpens are struggling it is often because they “lack that end of the game guy” or “they’re going with the closer by committee”. The Red Sox lost that game in Detroit not because they don’t have a legit closer (Papelbon) but because they refused to use him in a “non-save situation”. Ludicrous.

Picture the same scenario as above. Men on the corners with one out, you’re down by one, and you have some power due up next inning. It is completely asinine to think that this is not a game saving situation. Your best reliever this season has been Jon Papelbon, lights out, striking out guys, getting infield pop-ups, he has been untouchable all season long. As manager it is your job to maximize your chances to win every game. Bringing in Papelbon in the *gasp* 8th inning and keeping the game within reach maximizes your chances to win. Period. Terry Francona is by no means totally responsible for this decision, or lack there of. He is just the most recent in a long line of managers following the ideology and mentality of baseball today. “This isn’t a save situation? I am not going to even think of my closer”.

Let’s look at this from a different perspective. You are the manager of a team. You are up by one in the 8th and the bases are loaded. Your team is up and it is the bottom third of your lineup. You have a very good pinch hitter sitting on the bench. This is a no brainer, you clearly pinch hit to try and score some insurance runs. This gives you the best chance to win. Why is this not true of bullpens and particularly closers? In my mind any critical late (after the 7th inning) game circumstance, leading or trailing, involving your bullpen should go to your ace closer. Maybe I am crazy and would have my closer appear in 80 games and only have 30 saves. But I do think that Papelbon would’ve kept that lead at one. Save be damned.

The game today is driven by numbers. With all the media coverage, a myriad of sports writers, and the ESPN nation, numbers are thrown at us from all directions. We all want the next home run champ, Cy Young winner, MVP, or next all time great player. In a perfect world managers should be immune to this but that is impossible. If it was possible then Francona would have put Papelbon in and who knows, maybe they go into the 9th down by only one run. The save probably needs to be re-thought and maybe even broadened. Setup men get nothing and probably face as many “game saving” situations as the closer does.

As a manager it is your job to maximize your chances of winning. If bringing in your closer in the 8th inning while trailing, to preserve your chance to win the game will do that, then you should without question do it.

How Fantasy Sports Have Made me Into a Better Fan

A while back I wrote an entry detailing the shortcomings of fantasy sports, baseball in particular. I said to myself “how can I bash something I find so amazingly entertaining?” So the following was born: why fantasy sports are God’s gift to the modern sports fan.

One cannot, I repeat cannot, be a real sports fan without some fascination with numbers. 50 home run seasons, .300 averages, 40 touchdown seasons, 30 point-per-game averages, these are all numbers regular fans at least know about. Fantasy sports takes numbers to a whole new level. Until I played fantasy sports I had no clue what OPS, SLG, and WHIP meant in baseball. Or player efficiency rating and assist to turnover ratio for basketball. Now I find myself looking at ground ball to fly ball ratios, K and BB/9 innings, VOPR ratings, and other insanely comprehensive stats cooked-up by the guys over at baseballprospectus.com. If I was 1/10 as interested in high school math as I was in Coco Crisp’s outfield range rating I wouldn’t be the basic college math class.

In my previous entry on this topic I spoke of how in extreme cases you one can find oneself rooting for a sworn enemy. There is of course a flipside to that coin, and that is knowledge of other teams. In the “real” sports world you root for your team, whether it be home or former home, and maybe a few others at most. You check the paper for the scores of your games and maybe the standings to see who’s good. The fantasy world is much deeper.

Three years ago if you asked me to name 5 players on the Colorado Rockies there is no way I could do it. This year, I know the whole lineup and the crucial stats of the top 3-4 guys on the team (Brad Hawpe is a beast). Being an east coaster I had zero interest in those crazy left coast teams playing at 10:30pm. Now Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks is my ace starter and probably the reason the Grundle Kickers are in 4th. Everyday I have a vested interest in the box scores of every game, seeing who is heating up, slumping, who got shelled, and who threw a complete game. A few weeks ago I found myself watching the Yankees/Rangers game, despite the fact I hate the Yankees and could really care less about the Rangers. But I had Damon, A-Rod, and Teixera starting that game and had a legitimate reason to watch. When a Red Sox fan like me can cheer for guys like Dan Uggla, Jason Bay, Justin Verlander, and Carlos Lee that is something truly wonderful.

A lot of people have the image that all fantasy sports players are gamblers and the only reason they are so interested is that they can win money. I mean honestly why else would anyone like horse racing? My friends and I don’t put a single penny down and yet we still talk about how each other are doing on a daily basis, make fun of unfortunate injuries, mull over trades for days, and curse good performances by players we don’t have. It makes for great sport conversation, outside of the “did you see the Sox game last night?”

If you are on the fence about fantasy sports, talk to your crazy fantasy sports friends and join up some season. You’ll learn more about the game(s) you love, broaden your fandom, and have a lot of fun while doing it.