Monday, February 23, 2009

Horrible inJustice

And no, I'm not talking about Mickey Rourke losing to Sean Penn last night. I am talking about Richard Justice -- who, apparently, is dumb.

When I say "winning football team in Texas," who do you think of? No, not the Oilers. It's the Cowboys. The sports model of why the terrorists hate us. They've got T.O. and Romo -- prototypes of their respective positions. A crazy owner and the most famous cheerleaders this side of the Laker Girls. By golly, they're America's team!

I don't know how much owners have to do with other teams, but I do know Jerry Jones is fucking crazy and makes pretty much every Cowboys decision. Is this a good move? I doubt it, but hey, it seems to be working in a dysfucntional way.

But your Chief Justice will take the Texans owner. Every time. The owner whose team has never been above .500 in seven seasons and hit eight wins only twice -- these past two years. Please, Justify this pick (these puns will go on all day).

I'm going to get screamed at for this opinion.

Arrrrrrrgggggggh!!!

I know that upfront. I'm braced for it. I'm going to be reminded that Jerry Jones has three championships, Bob McNair none, that the Cowboys are more interesting than the Texans and that the Cowboys now have a better stadium than the Texans.

I'm going to be reminded that there are advantages to having a pro-active owner instead of one that sometimes seem not to have a pulse. I'll hear that the Cowboys are one of the two most popular professional sports franchises in this country while the Texans are irrelevant.

It's also true that Bob McNair hasn't had a good off-season. He raised ticket prices at the worst possible time. He apparently is so insulated from reality that he doesn't know the country's economy is in shambles.

His team got caught doing off-season drills that were both dumb and illegal. Investigations are underway, injury grievances pending. McNair's GM, Rick Smith, appears to have zero respect inside the lockerroom. Meanwhile, the Texans are beginning their eighth season still in search of a year in which they win more than they lose.

McNair should thank his lucky stars that he lives in a city in which the media coverage of the team is so soft. No matter how many free-agent mistakes are made, no matter how many injury grievances are filed, no matter how many rules are broken, there's almost no tough reporting.

Holy shit, looks like I don't have to do any work here.

Having said all of that, it's not even a close call for me. I'd take Bob McNair over Jerry Jones seven days a week.

Before I clicked on this article, I thought, "Hey, maybe this Justice fella will make some argument about how the Texans have been really good drafters the past few seasons and seem to be moving in the right direction." Maybe a few Texans/Cowbys draft comparisons, something like that.

The Texans get it.

Fuuuuuuuccckkkk.

I believe more than ever than Gary Kubiak is going to be a terrific head coach. He gets his teams to play with passion each and every week. If the Texans continue to upgrade the roster, they'll eventually win.

"If the Texans get better, they'll get better."

The Cowboys are a mess.

A 9-7, one season removed from 13-3, mess that has talent at every position and, unfortunately for them, plays in a ridiculously tough division.

No head coach has real authority. If a player has a problem with the coach, he knows he can go to Jerry. If the head coach makes a rule, players know it means nothing, that Jerry might overrule it at any moment.

Jerry has good personnel men on his payroll, but he doesn't always listen to them. He has no concept of team chemistry and why a guy like T.O. is a team-killer.

So it's team chemistry. That's why the Boys are a mess. Not an injured QB or a shit trade for the corpse of Roy Williams. There's too much T.O.nium mixed with Romoric acid, creating a cloud of deadly gas.

T.O. -- or T.K. (for team killer) as I like to call him, last season:
69 catches/1052 yards/10 TDs

McNair wouldn't allow a guy like T.O. within five miles of his front door. He doesn't want thugs on his team, either.

Thugs is old, white writer speak for the N-word. Just sayin. And if McNair wouldn't let a 1000 yard, double-digit TD receiving "thug" on his team, he is dumb.

Roll your eyes about this if you want, but in the end, character is still important. When a game is tight in the fourth quarter, talent and chemistry are important.

Like how much lithium is in the ball or the oxide levels of the air in Denver.

The Texans still have one more difficult step to take in their quest for respectability. I don't know if they're going to take it in 2009 or not. But they're way more likely to be in the playoffs next season than the Cowboys. For that, we should be appreciative.

OK. This is bullshit. But not for the reasons you think. The Texans may be more likely to make the playoffs, but it has shit to do with the owner Master's degree in chemistry.

The Cowboys are still playing with the Eagles, Giants and Redskins -- all better than above average teams with huge payrolls. The Texans play with the Titans, Colts and Jags. The Titans are great, but Kerry Collins? Fo real?!!? The Colts are on the down swing, but still good and the Jags are mediocre.

And the Cowboys still have Romo and Witten and T.O. and a good defensive front and bunch of other shit the Texans don't have. Gun to my head, I am picking the Cowboys to make it, if only because the Texans have never been above .500.

This:
Texans lifetime record -- 40-72
Cowboys in same span -- 61-51

That too.

Friday, February 13, 2009

People continue to be baffled by Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn -- OBP and home run machine -- just signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Nationals. Aside from it being the Nationals, good for him. As a player the majority of the baseball talking/writing heads continually rip on, I love him.

But still, "His defense sucks! All he can do it hit homers. Walks are borrrrrrrrrring."

I pretty much summed up this article.

One would surmise that Dunn will be used to hit in front of or behind potential all-star Ryan Zimmerman, giving the Nationals a solid run producing combo in the middle of their lineup. However, when breaking down the numbers, this might not be the case. Dunn, despite his large OBP and 40+ homer potential is of minimal value on a club like the Nationals.

Forty home runs. Minimal value. There's nowhere else to go but up from here!

Dudes who hit 40+ home runs in 2008 = Two. Dunn and Howard.

That's actually the opposite of minimal value. Especially at $10 mil/season.

First, the idea that Dunn’s lofty OBP holds any sort of amazing value is blatantly false.

Ohhhhhhh doctor.

Dunn -- who is only 28 years old, mind you -- has a career .381 OBP. That's 21st among all active players. Higher than Utley (who is also older), Teixeira and Miggy Cabrera.

The idea that a top-twenty OBP you can get at a discount price is not of amazing value is blatantly false.

For his career Dunn has an OBP of .381 but when you subtract his home run total he has only scored 421 runs in 1,552 times on base.

While we're at it, let's subtract the best thing each player does in baseball.*

When Reyes doesn't steal a base he only scores 16% of time.
When Howard doesn't hit a home run he only scores 32% of the time he's on base.
When Pujols doesn't do everything awesomely Tony La Russa falls asleep.

An exercise in stupidity? You bet.

Oh, and runs scored is teammate dependent. That's why Dunn is awesome, he drives himself in. Sure, he may not be a "team player" in that he doesn't sit at second base clapping for Ryan Freel to drive him in. But who cares.

Of those 421 runs, 185 of them came after he walked. Dunn has drawn 797 walks in his career, meaning he has scored after a walk only 23% of the time. Of those 185 runs scored after a walk, Dunn has advanced (or been advanced by a teammate) into scoring position on 130 of them (70%). The point is that, unless he gets into scoring position, Adam Dunn’s walks are good for a run scored less than 25% of the time.

All this shit comes down to this: It isn't Dunn's fault.

All he can do is A) walk to first and hope some scrub can drive him in (note: sorry he can't steal two bags.) or B) hit a freakin' home run and drive himself in.

Either way, he sucks.

It is painfully obvious when looking at Dunn’s stolen base and doubles totals that he does a poor job of getting into scoring position when not belting the long ball. So, the question becomes, who is going to be moving him along?

Please tell me it's Christian "The Black David Eckstein" Guzman.

If he hits third (which Dunn’s done in only 125 of his 1,131 career games) then he’s a good chance of being advanced by Zimmerman, who is a double-hitting machine. However, Zimmerman has only hit in the clean-up slot 69 times in his career and usually hits third himself. If Dunn hits fourth, several of Zimmerman’s doubles will be wasted as Dunn does two things very well – walk and/or strike out.

This, this right here, is ridiculous. "He's only batted third 125 times! He'll go fucking crazy if he's moved one slot in the lineup!"

Look, it's not like he's going from playing left field to catching. He's moving (theoretically) from third to fourth, something hitters do all the time. Dunn isn't going to suddenly forget how to OBP .380 and hit 40 bombs because you moved him one spot in the lineup.

This also feels like Mike Walsh really wanted to write clogging the bases. Just do it! It feels so good!

The only way to squeeze any value out of Dunn’s OBP is to hit him second and put contact hitters like Zimmerman and Cristian Guzman

Woooo!

behind him in order to advance him into scoring position. Otherwise, Dunn’s on base percentage is just a number which has led to no viable run production outside of his home run potential. This has been a consistent problem for Dunn over the last eight seasons.

Again, not his fault. Sorry he can't walk to first, sacrifice himself over, steal third and score on passed ball, but hey, 40 homers and a .900 OPS comes with a price.

Dunn has driven in only 328 runners in 969 at bats with runners in scoring position (34%) for his career when not hitting a homer. Again, Dunn is outperformed by someone like Jose Reyes in this department. Reyes, despite a career slugging percentage of .436 (compared to Dunn’s .518) has driven in 235 runners in 632 at bats with men in scoring position (37%). In 2008 Reyes drove in 52 teammates; Dunn drove in 60. For the season Dunn had an OPS of .899 while Reyes posted a low mark of .772. Still, Reyes drove in only eight fewer men (minus homers) and scored 58 more runs than Dunn despite a 50 point difference in OBP and a 127 point difference in OPS.

This is so skewed it's a joke. You'd think he'd pick a comparable hitter to Dunn to make these numbers seem like it's a Dunn's fault. But no, how about we go with Jose Reyes, who hit 16 home runs in 2008. Subtracting homers from Reyes does nothing because he bats leadoff. In fact, 11 of his homers came with the bases empty. So there! *sticks tongue out*

Let's look at the RISP numbers for both:

Reyes - 144 PA/33 H/4 HR/2 2B/4 3B/53 RBI/21 BB/0.844 OPS
Dunn - 182 PA/32 H/11 HR/3 2B/0 3B/65 RBI/39 BB/0.929 OPS

This entire argument is also crazy because it's not like Dunn = Reyes. One of the bets SS in baseball who makes a cajillion dollars versus a top-twenty OF free-agent. It's not like the Nats had a choice between them.

Completely different types of players.

Dunn’s career OPS is .899- Good.

Dunn’s other career totals; 201 doubles, 59 stolen bases, eight triples while batting a mere .225 with 329 strikeouts in 969 at-bats (34% of the time) with runners in scoring position- Bad.

Really? You're picking steals and triples here? How about sac flies and infield hits while we're at it?

How about his NL home run rankings from '04-'08, which go 2, 4, 7, 3, 2? Or walks from '02-'08, 3, 6, 3, 2, 5, 1? Or how he's in the top 25 among actives in OPS+, BB, OPS, and OBP? And not getting paid like it?

Adam Dunn is really, really, really good at hitting homers and getting to first base. He won't save the Nats (who can?), but he'll hit 40 homers and walk 110+ times, all the while people admonish him for not scoring runs or something else dumb.

Oh well.

*numbers made up

Monday, February 09, 2009

Bill Madden may have suffered a serious head injury

That is really the only explanation of him suggesting that the Yankees cut the alleged steroid abuser, A-Rod.

I've stumbled across a lot of moronic, sensationalist and ill-informed sports writing over the past year or so since I've been actively looking for it. But I am not exaggerating when I say this is the absolute dumbest.

Now that A-Rod's pursuit looks as counterfeit as Bonds', they should do what's best for the organization:

Cut him loose - no matter the cost.

That cost? $270 million. Thrown away. Not to sign the best player in baseball, but to cut him. How does Madden still have a job? Oh that's right, this is in the New York Daily News.

As difficult as it is to imagine eating $270 million, the Bombers will be making a statement, not just for the Yankee brand but for baseball as a whole.

And we all know the Yankees -- the holiest franchise in baseball, nay all of sports -- are responsible to guarding the ivory gates of baseball dogma. They must stand for what's right -- single-handedly expunge this widespread cancer from America's glorious pastime.

The statement they will make is, "We don't want to win or make smart business decisions. We want to do 'what's right.'"

They will be applauded for it.

Yes, by every other team in baseball because then they can sign A-Rod at a discount.

The Yankees operate under two basic tenets: The relentless pursuit of championships

Those chances will be negatively correlated by cutting A-Rod.

and the fierce protection of their brand. If they are going to remain true to both, then they have no choice but to sever ties with Rodriguez.

And sign Andy freakin' Pettitte -- a roid user.

And if you think A-Rod wilted under the pressure of big games before, just imagine his delicate psyche now under the heightened scrutiny of the media and fans.

Well since he's a pussy, he'd crumble anyway. A-FRAUD!!

As painful as swallowing that $270 million might be, there will be consolation for the Yankees when no other team elects to besmirch their brand by taking in A-Rod - even for nothing.

Oh boy...

Teams not signing Bonds is understandable. He's an AL-only player because he cannot play OF anymore and giving your DH spot to a 40-year-old attention magnet that may not be baseball-ready anymore is not something a lot of teams can do.

But the assertion that no team would sign a bought out A-Rod is absurdly dumb. He's a 33-year-old three-time MVP who will chase the home run record. The steroid thing is honestly so insignificant that I guarantee his phone would be ringning off the hook with calls should the Yankees do this - which they won't because the Yankee brass aren't idiots.

Yet another reason I am glad I am not a Yankee fan: I don't have to read this bullshit all the time about my team.

Until Ortiz gets nabbed and Dan Shaughnessy calls for the '04 and '07 championships to be rescinded.

Monday, February 02, 2009

Best Super Bowl EVARARARAR!!!!!!1111111!111!!!!

A game was played last night. It was exciting - at least quarters two and four, where 44 of the 50 points were scored - and much better than people thought it was going to be.

But best ever? Ahh how we over-exaggerate recent memories.

Snap judgments require making quick, rapid-fire assessments, but I think even upon further review, with lots of time to mull things over, I'd still come to the same remarkable conclusion: We just witnessed the best Super Bowl in history. Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23.

No. The last eight minutes - when the score went from yawn-worthy 20-7 to the final of 27-23 - were very exciting. But the other 52? Sure, there were great plays. But Arizona did not play very well, there were a ton of penalties and there were questionable calls. Let's not go crazy here.

A mouthful, I know. But for drama, plot twists and huge, game-changing plays, how can we say anything less than the Super Bowl's 43rd edition was the best ever?

By saying it was a very exciting game and could be one of the best Super Bowls ever. Ah, but we don't get paid to write rationally.

"Some say we could not top last year's Super Bowl, but the Steelers and Cardinals did that tonight,'' said NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, getting no disagreement from me.

Background on last year's Super Bowl that you already know:

  • The Patriots were 18-0 and enormous favorites.
  • The Giants were a wild card team, the first ever to win a Super Bowl.
  • Tom Brady threw 50 TDs, a record and won the MVP.
  • The Patriots may have had the best season any team has ever had.
  • There was the whole Spygate thing and the Pats cast as one of the best villains ever.
  • The Patriots were 18 and fucking 0.
  • The Giants won an insane series of plays, the likes of which are impossible to recreate. I can't even watch this whole clip.
Pretty good one.