Sunday, November 19, 2006

The Picks: Week 11

Chicago Bears (-6) at New York Jets
Jets coming off big win, but Bears are better.

Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Dallas Cowboys
Won't be as close as advertised. Colts by 10+.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3)
Ponies too tough at home. Bolts spent way too much karma last week.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at San Francisco 49ers
Even without Hasselbeck they would win. With him, big win.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)
Because I love the Texans.

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 20-26-4

Monday, November 13, 2006

Gyroballin' in Boston

For those who don’t know the gyroball is a mysterious pitch that has reached mythical status over the past few months. It was invented by two Japanese scientists, supposedly in an attempt to relieve stress on the arm. The pitch is thrown like a football, with a rotation akin to a bullet. It breaks down and in on right handed batters and has the look of a very sharp curve ball. What makes this pitch so mystifying is that we all aren’t sure if anyone can throw it, much less Daisuke Matsuzaka. Even the man himself has said he can’t throw it. But then said he could, but he hasn't mastered it (1). Allegedly. But there is video of it (YouTube it) being thrown and it looks filthy. Allegedly. Everything surrounding the gyroball is shrouded in uncertainty.

What does all this mean for the Boston Red Sox, whose 42-million dollar bid to talk to the talented Matsuzaka has been reported as being the highest? Put simply, it means a lot. First off the gyroball doesn’t matter. If he can pitch it (and it doesn’t destroy your elbow or something) great, that means hitters will have to adjust to some crazy pitch they have never seen before. If he can’t that’s fine too. The guy has talent; the USA Team saw that first hand in the World Baseball Classic, when he went 3-0 and won the MVP for the event. Here are his stats in Japan with the Seibu Lions over the last eight seasons: 108-59 win/loss, 3.00 ERA, 169 strikeouts per season, and 175 IP per season (2). Those are pretty solid numbers; in fact they are better than pretty solid. Being able to potentially throw Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, and Matsuzaka out there as your rotation is exciting. Potential is the key word here. Papelbon is being converted from closer to starter and may have a tough time dealing with a starter workload. Beckett had trouble adjusting to the AL, and he has been in the majors for a few years now. It won’t be easy for Matsuzaka.

Obviously Japanese baseball is not at the same level as American baseball, although I feel it is closer than people think. Small ball is played a lot more in Japan then in the U.S. and the bottom line is most MLB players are bigger and stronger than most Japanese players, whether legally or not. The other factor for Matsuzaka is that there is always an adjustment period for any foreign player. There is culture shock, a language barrier, and sudden stardom to deal with. I can only imagine how tough all that is going to be, not to mention pitching in the Major Leagues.

Assuming the Red Sox did in fact post the high bid and can work out a deal with Matsuzaka, it could be a huge blow to their prime rivals, the New York Yankees. The simple fact that the Red Sox outbid the Yankees is a moral victory in and of itself. When it comes to high profile free agents the Yanks and Sox are always at the top of the heap. Anytime one can take a free agent away from the other, it is twice as sweet. At worst the Sox could sign him and trade him to anyone but the Yankees.

There are some risks that come with the Matsuzaka bidding victory. This guy has pitched a ton in his career, and early in high school. In a high school game he threw 250 pitches in a 17 inning game. He then played outfield and recorded a save the next game. Long term durability is a problem I could see coming up. Although scouts have said he is a top of the rotation guy I have my doubts. To me he is a solid 2-3 guy, but will be making number one money. This may not bode well for the free spending Sox. 42 million dollars is a lot of money. And with Scott Boras as his agent (notorious for getting players a lot more money) the Red Sox may end up paying through the nose for an unproven prospect. A few names to consider: Hideki Irabu, Byung Hyun Kim, and Hideo Nomo.

The Daisuke Matsuzaka sweepstakes is the biggest story of the baseball off-season thus far. It has everything: international flavor, high powered bidding wars, and a pitch that may or may not be real. It will be very interesting to see how this whole thing unfolds. If the gyroball and the man who can/cannot throw it, is for real.




(1) Random facts courtesy of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daisuke_Matsuzaka
(2) Stats from http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2660428

Sunday, November 12, 2006

The Picks: Week 10

San Diego Chargers (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals
These are the same Chargers with LT right? One lousy point? The Bengals season dies today.

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-13)
A Colts regular season game against a cup cake? Put it in the books no matter how high the line is.

Denver Broncos (-9) at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are so god awful there is no way they will lose by less than nine. They might not even score a point for the second straight week.

Chicago Bears (E) at New York Giants
This is a tough game. Rex Grossman is finally himself again, throwing 3+ interceptions a game. The funny thing is the Bears are still in games in which they turn the ball over 5-6 times. The Giants are banged up, most importantly Strahan. Chicago in a close one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10) at Carolina Panthers
Could Carolina be the most overrated 4-4 ever? I think so. People are still holding on to their pre-season Super Bowl predictions involving Carolina. After this week I think the nail will be in the coffin.

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 18-23-4

Sunday, November 05, 2006

The Picks: Week 9

Patriots/Colts tonight. Is there anything better? This has been a great first half of the NFL season. A couple surprises (Rams, Bears, Chiefs) and even more disappointments (Dolphins, Cardinals, Seahawks). It's only going to get better from here.

Denver Broncos (-2-1/2) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I guess everyone still hasn't given up on the Steelers yet. Big Ben looks like a confused child playing quarterback. Get ready for this sentence Steelers fans: you're better off with Charlie Batch. The Broncos are for real even with Jake at QB. They are well coached, run the ball, and play very stout defense. They are coming off that tough loss against Indy, look for them to bounce back against the woozy Steelers.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-3)
The game of the season. This will determine who represents the AFC in the Super Bowl. At 7-0 if the Colts win they would cruise to 14-2 or 13-3 and homefield throughout the playoffs. If the Pats win and go to 7-1, they would be in a dead heat with Indy for homefield. We all know the history of Indy coming to Foxboro. No one in their right mid would bet on Peyton in New England in January. The Colts run defense is terrible, this is the biggest weakness the Indy juggernaut has had in a while. Maroney (if he plays) and Dillon should run right at the Indy line for big gains. To me this game means more to the Patriots, they will rise to occasion and win a close game.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Detroit Lions
Vick has been playing inspired quarterback the past few weeks. He has been shutting up detractors by throwing very well as well as running the ball effectively. The Detroit defense is just what the doctor ordered to keep this going. They are 31st in points at 27 per and 29th in passing yards allowed at just under 238 per game. Vick should have a field day against the joke that has become the Lions.

Tennessee Titans (+10) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The David Garrrard era starts in Jacksonville, but for how long. The Jags defense is still great (2 shutouts at home in 3 games) but there is no way they are winning by ten, even against the Titans. Tennessee is coming off 2 straight wins and Vince Young looks like he is learning to run the team, even if he isn't putting up great numbers. This is a team for the future, not the present. All that said, I think they can cover.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (+5)
The enigma, wrapped in a puzzle, wrapped in a question that is the Vikings. One week they are only getting 2-1/2 against the 6-1 Patriots. The next they are giving away 5 to the 9ers. Here's the truth: the Vikings aren't that good. They are 2 field goals (one missed by the Redskins) away from being 2-5. The run defense is good, but the Pats threw the ball 90 times against them and blew them out. The Vikings could win on another field goal, but they won't win by more than five.


Last Week: 1-4
Season: 16-20-4