Friday, January 19, 2007

NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship

Can the Saints overcome their terrible history? How bad will Rex Grossman be? Will Peyton Manning get the monkey off his back? Can the Patriots keep their historic dominance in past post-seasons up? These are the four major plotlines that have been driven into the ground over the past week or so involving the remaining playoff teams. I am sick of them and can’t wait until this round is over and we get on to the pointless Super Bowl angles! What Brady ate for breakfast or how excited Manning is to be in his first Super Bowl. Will New Orleans bring a championship to a city that really needs it? As the teams dwindle, so does the quality of stories about said teams. Anyway enough ranting, on to the predictions.

New Orleans Saints (+2) at Chicago Bears
The +2 line is the ultimate “we have no clue, your guess is as good as ours” line. If this game was in New Orleans I think the line would be at least -7 Saints. They are playing too well on offense and with too much emotion to lose this game. Chicago’s D has been suspect its past few games, and probably should have lost to Seattle, giving up 24 points. Then again, all of the remaining teams are 1-2 plays away from sitting at home. Rex won’t lose this game for the Bears, but he won’t win it either. Saints-27 Bears-17.

New England Patriots (+3) at Indianapolis Colts
Looking at Brady and Manning’s post season numbers so far, no one would guess they’d be dueling for the chance to go to the Super Bowl. This has all the makings of a classic. On one hand we have the crafty veterans who have done it time and time again, in the Patriots. On the other side there are the perennial bridesmaids, the Colts, who have been knocked out by the Patriots twice en route to the Super Bowl. This time the Colts are at home, the Pats have castoffs and old men at almost every position, Vinatieri is kicking for the other team, the Indy defense is playing inspired football and the Patriots are truly the luckiest team in the Conference championship round. That being said they still have Brady and Belichick at the two most important positions in football. Patriots-24 Colts-21.

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 5-3

Saturday, January 13, 2007

2006 NFL Playoffs: Round 2

Indianapolis Colts (+4) at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is getting a lot of love in this game. Their defense is championship caliber and their offense is capable and efficient. Take all that with a poor Colts performance against the Chiefs and it looks like Indy is doomed. But something in my gut says Peyton will have a big game, as he usually does against Baltimore. I look for Indy to at least cover and score 21+ points.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-6)
New Orleans is too high powered, too rested and too motivated this season to lose at home against a beat-up Philly squad. Lito Sheppard being out for the game is a huge loss and I look for N.O. to score north of 27 points. Philly will have to play a perfect game with no turnovers and score quite a few points to win this one.

Seattle Seahawks (+9) at Chicago Bears
I don't think Seattle will win this game. But nine points is way too much against a very nervous Bears team. Seattle is really banged up on defense and offense and looks drained. That said I feel like Rex will crack under this playoff pressure and put up a stinker. Seattle covers in a close one: 21-14 Bears.

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (-4-1/2)
The talk of this game is the Pats need to stop LT. What a lot of people are over looking is that San Diego has a very fast and tenacious defense that puts a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Pats may find a way to contain LT and confuse Phillip Rivers, but that Charger defense, lead by Merriman, should be too much for the Patriots to handle.

Playoffs: 3-1

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Mark McGwire, 2007 (non) Hall of Famer

Earlier this week Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. were deservedly enshrined in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame. Sadly, what overshadowed theses two legends reception was the dark cloud of one Mark McGwire. McGwire is the first of many "Steroid Era" players eligible for the Hall of Fame. It was no surprise that McGwire was not elected, almost all preliminary polls showed that he would not get nearly enough of the requisite 75% of the vote necessary to get in. The polls proved accurate, McGwire only garnered 23.5% of the vote and was denied Hall of Fame enshrinement this year and maybe forever. But if the powers-that-be deny McGwire where will it end? Regardless of what you think about McGwire, denying him creates a domino effect that could destroy the Hall of Fame's credibility.

Numbers are far too hallowed in baseball. But as these holy numbers are being assaulted by smaller ball parks, juiced baseballs and increasingly larger players, "records were meant to be broken" has turned into "records were meant to be broken, but only by people we deem worthy." People were up in arms when Hank Aaron was coming up on Babe Ruth's career home run record. But that had a lot to due with race. Someone, sometime is going to break Aaron's record. Eventually, almost all of baseball's beloved records will be broken. That fact is something a lot of people don't want to acknowledge. McGwire breaking Roger Maris's long standing single-season home run record probably angered a lot of people. Clean or dirty, people hate seeing records of their favorite players (sometimes teammates) be broken. I am sure a lot of Ty Cobb fans smiled when Pete Rose got busted for gambling, thus denying him the Hall of Fame plaque he (still) deserves.

McGwire was denied the Hall of Fame not because of his numbers (no matter what people say) but because he represents the dark cloud hanging over baseball that is steroids. He will be the first 500 home run club member not to make the Hall. McGwire was a member of 12 All-Star teams, won 3 Silver Slugger awards, was the 1987 Rookie of the Year and has notorious home-run records, single season (70) and career (583, good for 7th all-time). But most importantly McGwire (along with Sosa) saved baseball in 1998. The argument that McGwire is one dimensional may be true but he was prolifically one dimensional. The Hall of Fame is full of one dimensional players, especially those on the 500 home run list. How can a player who is 7th on the all-time home-run list not be in the Hall of Fame? Because of performance enhancers. There is no proof McGwire took illegal performance enhancing drugs (Jose Canseco's book aside). McGwire admitted to using an over the counter, un-banned substance, Androstenedione. But McGwire is being vilified as an example of the steroid era. McGwire not being elected to the Hall of Fame is something much bigger than he is.

Anyone the media deems as a steroid user will now not be included in the Hall of Fame. There is absolutely no evidence that Sammy Sosa took or did anything, but since he was hitting homers the same time McGwire was, he is going to be dragged down with him. Barry Bonds, one of the top 5 hitters of all-time, steroids or not, will also be denied the Hall of Fame due to the Balco scandal among other things. Bonds (7-time MVP, 13-time all-star, 8-time gold glove winner and 12-time silver slugger award winner) was a Hall of Famer around 1995, well before the supposed steroid scandal.

What intrigues and angers me the most about the whole steroid era is that there is positively not a single way to tell who uses performance enhancing drugs. We all picture 250-pound monsters jacking bombs 600 feet over the outfield fence. But what about pitchers? 160-pound relievers who want an extra 1-2 MPH on their fastballs. Or a starting pitcher who wants to be able to recover quicker between starts? What about America's darling Roger Clemens? A hulking power pitcher who has peaked after the age of 35. Why does no one talk about him as a possible steroid user? If we are in the business of slinging accusations at players like Sosa and Bonds why not guys like Clemens?

Look at David Ortiz. In his first six seasons in Minnesota he never hit more than 20 home runs. Granted he didn't have a lot of playing time (roughly 400 games) but in his first four seasons in Boston he hit 31, 41, 47 and 54 home runs. Sure the team around him and ball park has something to do with it, but is it possible Ortiz took steroids to increase his numbers? I really don't know. The truth is anyone could be on steroids, we can't tell by looking at them and if you are going to accuse someone, you better look at everyone in baseball.

The solution isn't as difficult as it seems. Put McGwire in the Hall of Fame and on his plaque write something to the effect of "possibly used steroids and pleaded the 5th during a congressional hearing." The Hall of Fame is full of cheaters anyway, whose deeds are brushed under the rug. By putting some "disclaimer" on McGwire's plaque allows players like Bonds and Sosa, who are slam-dunk Hall members, to be inducted with little uproar. If this solution is not satisfactory then find out how steroids augmented these guys numbers and A) change them or B) asterisk them. You say that's impossible? You're right. Mark McGwire deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.

Saturday, January 06, 2007

2006 NFL Playoffs

So I finished the 2006 season five games under .500 and missed the last two weeks due to Christmas and whatnot. The playoffs are a mere hour away from starting so here are my clearly mediocre predictions.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-7)
People are going crazy over Larry Johnson vs. the Indy rush defense. “He’ll have 300 yards and 3 touchdowns!” Alright, so Indy can’t stop the run. KC can’t stop the anything. Peyton will have at least 2 touchdowns and they should put up 24+ points on the Chiefs. LJ will have to carry the ball 30-35 times for over 175 yards to keep Manning in check and that is a tall order. Even if LJ does hit that threshold KC could still lose. KC has also lost its last 6 playoff games and Herm Edwards is a notorious playoff choke artist. This is not the upset in the first round.

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Even with 3 starting defensive backs out the Seahawks still have Alexander and the best home field advantage in the NFC. The Cowboys have all the talent in the world but have been very inconsistent down the stretch. Romo-mania is over and having him in the Pro Bowl is almost a joke now. This should be a close game with a lot of points and turnovers but Seattle should win it.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-8-1/2)
This is the upset game everyone is talking about. The Jets out-hustled the Pats in their last regular season meeting in a tight contest. But the Patriots were the only team over .500 the Jets beat this season. They had one of the easiest schedules in the league this year and finished 25th in total yards offense and 20th in yards allowed. Those are not good numbers at all. Belichick and Brady will not lose to a division rival on their home field in the playoffs. Look for the Pats to be geared up for this one and come up big.

New York Giants (+7) at Philadelphia Eagles
I don’t buy into the whole “the Eagles are on a roll so now they can beat anybody” ethos that the media is. They still have Jeff Garcia at quarterback. The defense has been playing very well and has been carrying this team. In the NFC the Eagles can make a run against sub-par teams (like the Giants) but I really don’t think they can hang with the “elite” teams (Saints and Bears). All that said the Giants are bad. They have chemistry issues, most prominently rooted in the team’s hatred for their head coach. If it weren’t for the Tiki Barber farewell tour performance in week 17 the Giants would be watching from home. Philly wins a close one.