Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade. Show all posts

Friday, August 01, 2008

I'd like to "overpay" at a Cafardo family yardsale

Then maybe I could get some Styx vinyl on the cheap.

You're all sick of the Manny deal, so let's put the nail in the coffin.

For years, the Red Sox have not been able to deal Manny Ramírez because they couldn't receive fair market value for him.

And you know something? They didn't get it this time.

I would say they received between 80-90 cents on the dollar for Manny - who is 36 and likely to make some major bank next season. Not bad.

But I'll give the Red Sox credit for this: They made an organizational determination - the players, the manager, the front office, the owners - that this Ramírez disturbance was different and far more volatile than the others and perhaps would linger.

You see, this trade wasn't about "value" or "economics" or "things are aren't mumbo jumbo."

Theo Epstein took a beating for it [trading Nomar/Manny] then and will likely take another now,

He's not, at least not from the media - who have a teensy bit of sway among the Boston fans.

but if you truly understand what had become an untenable situation with Ramírez, then you understand why Epstein overpaid to get rid of someone he felt was bringing down his team.

But of course, you can't understand for you are not a SPORTSWRITER! *thunderclap*

Obviously, the hope is that this is addition by subtraction, that the bad karma that had seeped into the Sox clubhouse has been exorcised and Jason Bay will bring a breath of fresh air.

Karma. Exorcism. Fresh air. Seepage. Are you sure the Red Sox clubhouse septic tank isn't busted?

There's no denying that the Red Sox gave up far more than they hoped to make this deal happen with the Dodgers and Pirates.

Allow me to deny.

Hansen (major league career): 72 IP/39BB:58K/6.15 ERA/1.67 WHIP/75 ERA+

Moss ('07 AAA): 493 AB/66 R/139 H/41 2B/16 HR/61 BB:148 K/.834 OPS

Summary: Hansen is a fairly below average reliever (at this stage) with few redeeming qualities other than he throws hard. Moss has a very solid OPS and 2B power but those strikeout to walk numbers are gross. He has power-hitter numbers without the HRs.

Here it comes...

Meh.

They gave up Brandon Moss, one of the most popular players among the brass and manager Terry Francona.

Ahhhhh, the important "popularity" stat. Moss leads Pawtucket in that.

They gave up Craig Hansen, one of their recent first-round draft picks,

And as well as know, first rounders always pan out.

who has all the potential in the world, but somehow couldn't get it done.

"Somehow couldn't get it done" is sportswriter code for "I don't want to/don't know how to look up stats."

"Somehow couldn't get it done"'s AAA numbers: 104 IP/56BB:91K/1.27 WHIP/36 ER.

Perhaps in Pittsburgh, a low-key market, Hansen will flourish,

Or rot.

and we expect Moss will do what David Murphy has done in Texas - play well and get his career off the ground.

Murphy is batting in a lineup with an All-Star at literally every position, including like three MVP candidates, and he isn't even doing all that well.

His 55 runs created is tied with players like Luke Scott, Lyle Overbay and Aaron Rowand. His cool 100 OPS+ means he is an exactly average MLB player. Even his traditional line (.263/14/67) is pretty yawn-worthy.

A year from now, we may all be saying: How on earth could they have given up on Manny and a good player like Moss and a good young reliever like Hansen for Jason Bay?

I can make a bold-faced promise that a year from now - assuming Manny doesn't go Carlos Beltran circa Houston in '06 and the Sox miss the playoffs - they won't be bemoaning the loss of ~5.00 ERA/sub-2:1 K:BB/1.40 WHIP Hansen and .260/14/70/150 K Moss.

But that just goes to show you how dire the situation with Ramírez had become before the Sox shipped him to the Dodgers at the trade deadline yesterday.

So dire, so so dire.

Manny = 36 years old, wants 20 million each year for the next two and then some absurd $900 million deal over four years in 2010.

Bay = 30, cost-controlled at ~$14 million over the next two years.

Economics? Getting oldonomics? Thuganomics?

No, direness.

Monday, July 21, 2008

And the rich get whinier

It's amazing what a sweep will do to the psyche of the fragile Boston media.

"We were swept by the West leaders and a team with one of the best records in baseball. Two of the games were two-run affairs! The sky is falling! The Rays are going to win 110 games! The Yankees will catch up!"

And to complete the fear-mongering, trade demands!

Well, I'm convinced. The Red Sox aren't winning anything of consequence with this bullpen as currently constituted.

The Red Sox suck. Fuck the number: two team in MLB in OBP and slugging, eight in homers, three in runs, five in quality starts, 11 in WHIP and six in strikeouts. Those bums with a +87 run differential and the fourth best record in baseball.

I'm sure you're all too familiar with the flammable culprits in this 'pen-wide tribute to Heathcliff Slocumb. But I'm still fuming in the aftermath of tonight's loss, so what the heck, let's point some fingers:

Papelbon - 178 ERA+, 51K/7BB, 0.96 WHIP
Aarsdma - 158 ERA+, 41K/26BB, 1.40 WHIP
Okajima - 154 ERA+, 37K/16BB, 1.41 WHIP
Delcarmen - 93 ERA+, 40K/16BB, 1.30 WHIP
Lopez - 151 ERA+, 21K/16BB, 1.46 WHIP

The WHIPs kind of stink, but those ERA+s are pretty nasty (- Manny being Manny). And you have three guys with a better than 2:1 K/BB ratio and who have given you nearly 40 innings at the break.

Summary: shut the hell up.

You have one of the top three closers in baseball and some guys in the pen who are throwing decent to pretty good seasons together.

Then again, David Murphy for Eric Gagne turned out awesome.

Three seasons into his big-league career, Manny Delcarmen still gets the Schiraldi Eyes in big situations;

What?

he simply cannot be trusted in a tight game, a damning indictment of a pitcher with his ability. But I'm sure he'd put up sick numbers as a Washington National.

Oh, those Schiraldi Eyes. The not-stepping-up-to-the-moment eyes.

Being a reliever sucks 99 percent of the time. You are asked to come into runners on situations and expected to succeed every, single time. When you don't, people like Chad Finn want to run you out of town.

Delcarmen also has 13 holds (remember those? They're like saves ((re: they are)) but not as sexy) and a nasty K/BB ratio. I am sure a host of MLB teams wouldn't mind having his Schiraldi Eyes in their pen.

Chances are the help will have to come from outside the organization, which brings me to this piece by CNN/SI's Jon Heyman and a compelling thought:

Maybe the Sox should pursue Oakland closer Huston Street.

Solution to "bullpen woes?" Get another closer! From Billy Beane, nonetheless. Who's notorious for pumping up a closer's value.

The Phillies also just got hornswoggled by Beane in the Joe Blanton deal. Beane is stockpiling a ludicrous amount of young talent and I wouldn't expect him to ask for anything less for Street.

Also, Gagne.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Simmons no likey Shawn Marion

As much hate as he gets, I still like Simmons' articles. I understand they are, at times, totally self-referential -full of in-jokes and name-dropping, but I think he gets a lot of hate purely because of jealousy. He's pretty much a fan getting paid to write about sports - that's pretty awesome.

In his most recent article, he defends the much-talked about Marion/Shaq trade.

"And yeah, I know he's talented, and the stat geeks love him, even though he peaked as an impact player two seasons ago and has a nasty habit of disappearing in big games."

I wonder why stat geeks love him...

15.8 points/game - 56th in NBA
10.1 rebounds/game - twelfth in the NBA
1.53 blocks/game - twenty first in the NBA
2.04 steals/game - eighth in the NBA
52% field-goal shooting - nineteenth in the NBA
53 total turnovers - 167th in the NBA

Marion can probably play every single position on an NBA court at least somewhat effectively. He is a superb defender, hardly ever turns the ball over, shoots well, is a very good rebounder (18 last night) and a good second/great third scoring option.

His wide range of really good stats make him one of, if not the, most unique player in the NBA. I understand the argument that Nash and Amare take a lot of pressure off of him, but seriously, no one else in the NBA puts up the array of numbers at the level Marion does.

In his two games so far with Miami (small sample, I know, but still) he has put up 19 PTS/16 REB/2.5 STL/1.5 BLK/2.0 TO. Those look pretty close to his season averages.

As far as "disappearing during big games" is concerned, I heard proof is good. Could it be that Amare and Nash take over late while not playing defense at all?

He is not a top-tier player, but he is an All-Star caliber one, a perfect fit for the Suns and should of hauled in more than an ancient Shaq and Marcus Banks.

Oh and he's the number one overall fantasy basketball player this season so far. He's obviously not the best player in the NBA, but he is unbelievably under-valued.

I don't think you need to be a stat geek to love Shawn Marion.