Friday, August 01, 2008

I'd like to "overpay" at a Cafardo family yardsale

Then maybe I could get some Styx vinyl on the cheap.

You're all sick of the Manny deal, so let's put the nail in the coffin.

For years, the Red Sox have not been able to deal Manny Ramírez because they couldn't receive fair market value for him.

And you know something? They didn't get it this time.

I would say they received between 80-90 cents on the dollar for Manny - who is 36 and likely to make some major bank next season. Not bad.

But I'll give the Red Sox credit for this: They made an organizational determination - the players, the manager, the front office, the owners - that this Ramírez disturbance was different and far more volatile than the others and perhaps would linger.

You see, this trade wasn't about "value" or "economics" or "things are aren't mumbo jumbo."

Theo Epstein took a beating for it [trading Nomar/Manny] then and will likely take another now,

He's not, at least not from the media - who have a teensy bit of sway among the Boston fans.

but if you truly understand what had become an untenable situation with Ramírez, then you understand why Epstein overpaid to get rid of someone he felt was bringing down his team.

But of course, you can't understand for you are not a SPORTSWRITER! *thunderclap*

Obviously, the hope is that this is addition by subtraction, that the bad karma that had seeped into the Sox clubhouse has been exorcised and Jason Bay will bring a breath of fresh air.

Karma. Exorcism. Fresh air. Seepage. Are you sure the Red Sox clubhouse septic tank isn't busted?

There's no denying that the Red Sox gave up far more than they hoped to make this deal happen with the Dodgers and Pirates.

Allow me to deny.

Hansen (major league career): 72 IP/39BB:58K/6.15 ERA/1.67 WHIP/75 ERA+

Moss ('07 AAA): 493 AB/66 R/139 H/41 2B/16 HR/61 BB:148 K/.834 OPS

Summary: Hansen is a fairly below average reliever (at this stage) with few redeeming qualities other than he throws hard. Moss has a very solid OPS and 2B power but those strikeout to walk numbers are gross. He has power-hitter numbers without the HRs.

Here it comes...


They gave up Brandon Moss, one of the most popular players among the brass and manager Terry Francona.

Ahhhhh, the important "popularity" stat. Moss leads Pawtucket in that.

They gave up Craig Hansen, one of their recent first-round draft picks,

And as well as know, first rounders always pan out.

who has all the potential in the world, but somehow couldn't get it done.

"Somehow couldn't get it done" is sportswriter code for "I don't want to/don't know how to look up stats."

"Somehow couldn't get it done"'s AAA numbers: 104 IP/56BB:91K/1.27 WHIP/36 ER.

Perhaps in Pittsburgh, a low-key market, Hansen will flourish,

Or rot.

and we expect Moss will do what David Murphy has done in Texas - play well and get his career off the ground.

Murphy is batting in a lineup with an All-Star at literally every position, including like three MVP candidates, and he isn't even doing all that well.

His 55 runs created is tied with players like Luke Scott, Lyle Overbay and Aaron Rowand. His cool 100 OPS+ means he is an exactly average MLB player. Even his traditional line (.263/14/67) is pretty yawn-worthy.

A year from now, we may all be saying: How on earth could they have given up on Manny and a good player like Moss and a good young reliever like Hansen for Jason Bay?

I can make a bold-faced promise that a year from now - assuming Manny doesn't go Carlos Beltran circa Houston in '06 and the Sox miss the playoffs - they won't be bemoaning the loss of ~5.00 ERA/sub-2:1 K:BB/1.40 WHIP Hansen and .260/14/70/150 K Moss.

But that just goes to show you how dire the situation with Ramírez had become before the Sox shipped him to the Dodgers at the trade deadline yesterday.

So dire, so so dire.

Manny = 36 years old, wants 20 million each year for the next two and then some absurd $900 million deal over four years in 2010.

Bay = 30, cost-controlled at ~$14 million over the next two years.

Economics? Getting oldonomics? Thuganomics?

No, direness.

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