Monday, June 30, 2008

RE: The dude who writes the MSN baseball power rankings

Link that tricked me: "Is Tampa Bay baseball's best team?"

Me: No.

Rankings: Rays 1, Sox 2, Cubs 3.

RS/RA differential ranks:
Cubs +94
White Sox +87
Red Sox/Phillies +72
A's +59
Rays +56

My use of colons: excessive.

Mr. October, candy bars, 'Phews' and hundreds of other anecdotes

Curt Schilling is near the end of his career. His Hall candidacy will be much-talked about until 2013-14, mainly because he's not a "stat" guy as much he was a "big game" guy.

Robert Moyer, at my beloved DugoutCentral.com, is a "big game" guy guy.

Stats are great.

I love stats. At times in my life I have literally lived them, and better ones are being developed constantly.

Me too! Wanna have a beer sometime and talk about Robinson Cano's BABIP or Roy Oswalt's FB/HR ratio?

But let’s not get lost in them, folks. With the power at our hands today it’s all too easy to do so.

Invitation rescinded.

Phil Melita’s recent article on Curt Schilling’s potential Cooperstown worthiness made a number of great points and elicited a stream of terrific responses ... However, the impact of a player on the Game is more, and sometimes less, than the sum of his statistics.

Best part of that paragraph, capilization of the Game. Like the Game is more important than You Are.


An area where Schilling most certainly does merit consideration, whether he adds a single W to his career total, is his personal impact on the sport – and that is indeed an intangible. Did he entertain people? Enthrall them, at least at some sustained peak? Was he a “character” that added to the color of the game? Did he rise above it when the spotlight was on him?

I don't care, none of that matters, it's impossible to determine, blah blah blah...

Seriously, "a 'character' that added to the color of the game?" Like Jon Papelbon? Is someone who is weird more Hall worthy than someone who is "normal?" Who decides who is a "character?" Is Carl "Dinosaurs Are Fake" Everett slightly more HOF worthy because he was a nut job? Couldn't one argue that everyone is a character, somehow? Is there a star in baseball who's personality-less (Pujols, maybe?)? I could ask a billion more questions, but they all come down to...

Who the hell cares.

All these things more rightfully enhance a player’s chances of reaching Cooperstown. Oppositely, no matter the quality of their statistics, deficiency in any or all of them shaves their prospects – just as stratospheric numeric performance can and does compensate for otherwise blandish presence.

Let me break it down, MC Hammer-style:

Awesome stats, cool dude = increased chance for Hall

Awesome stats, boring dude = slightly less chance

Really awesome stats, boring dude = push

Reggie Jackson and Rafael Palmeiro ... had “relatively” similar careers

Except Jackson had like twice the Ks, less hits, slightly worse: OBP/SLG/RBI/2B. Similar enough I suppose.

But what fan who watched both players in their primes would begin to argue that Palmeiro had a fraction of the electrifying impact Jackson had on the game, especially when the pressure was greatest and spotlight brightest?

I guess no one - Mr. October, straw that stirs the drink and such. But what does it matter again?

Jackson was a first-ballot Hall of Famer who earned fully 94% of baseball writers’ votes in spite of a middling .262 career BA and record shattering 2,597 whiffs.

And - assuming no one cares about roids, which effs up this comparison anyway - Palmeiro should be 100% first ballot. Benchmarks are lame, but 3,000 hits and 500 homers is pretty nuts. Plus, dude won a gold glove when he played like 1/2 a season. That's gotta be worth something.

Reggie didn’t get the nickname “Mr. October” by accident. And it wasn’t an accident that he had a candy bar named after him and created waves of headlines and ripples in the crowd wherever he appeared. Opposing fans always knew when he would come to bat; they would time their beer runs and bathroom breaks to make sure they wouldn’t miss his titanic swings. Entire stadiums sat on the edge of their seats and let out collective “Phews!” when he fanned with a game on the line, or crossed their fingers and mumbled prayers to their Almighty that he get a chance to tie one when they were down. They would scan their scorecards and beg for walks, hit batsmen, anything, ahead of him just to get him into the batter’s box.

I have nothing to say about this anecdote avalanche, just wanted to get it out there. Buzz Bissinger better watch his ass, this guy is a pro(se).

There are no statistics for these things, but fans know them, respect them and employ them as their own measures of Hall of Fame worthiness,

Which is ridiculous because people have crappy, false memories.

every bit as much as numbers, awards, and the opinions of baseball Talking Heads.

Funny thing is, talking heads love the anecdote explosion you just dropped earlier. Much more than stats and junk.

Oh, and:

And you may find yourself living in a shotgun shack
And you may find yourself in another part of the world
And you may find yourself behind the wheel of a large automobile
And you may find yourself in a beautiful house, with a beautiful wife
And you may ask yourself - "Well...How did I get here?"

Letting the days go by/Let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by/Water flowing underground
Into the blue again/After the money's gone
Once in a lifetime/Water flowing underground.

We must not lose sight of intangibles as our data-mining tools become more powerful and contributors and readers alike grow ever more agile in their use. These tools leave us richer in numbers, but if we aren’t careful about how we use them, they can make us poorer in context.

I understand what is being said here. Being a big, memorable character should increase your Hall worthiness ever so slightly. But to say that two guys with almost identical numbers - one is an attention hog, the other, a quiet guy - should have a disparity between their Halliness, is patently dumb.

If David Ortiz gets in on the back of his game winning bombs and "clutch" hits when he's done (assuming he doesn't go Bonds on us), I will scream and crown Robert Moyer king of all that is anecdotal and right with the Hall.

Schilling’s stats may be borderline for Cooperstown – may be. Are his contributions between them – his swagger, sweat, bloody sock and promises made and promises kept – enough to push him over the top?

If I were a betting man, I would bet that Schilling gets in at some point.

Note to all borderline HOFers: start a crazy blog, call out Kobe Bryant, put ketchup on your sock during the playoffs and start a video game studio.

Jemele Hill has different definition for 'good' than rest of world

So Jemele Hill is back after a little suspension for some Hitler name-dropping (hey, it happens).

Her newest claims that the West is totally overrated. The whole thing actually boils down to the sports-writer axiom "defense wins championships." Yawn.

The West (the bad conference) has totally unexciting 110-109 wins, that often involve creative offense, big name players going back and forth and generally pleasing basketball.

The East, meanwhile, has battles of will, grinding out 80-79 wins, where both teams shoot 30 percent and shoot 40 free throws. *300 voice* This. Is. Basketball!!!!!!!

Understand, this isn't an argument about which conference is deeper. Clearly the West wins that argument. Every Western playoff team won more than 50 games,

That's nuts.

while just three teams in the East accomplished that.

That's poopy.

Only four Western teams had a losing record against the East -- the SuperSonics, Clippers, Timberwolves and Grizzlies.

Who were like, all last place teams.

Just four Eastern teams managed a winning record against the West.


East: 50 win teams - three
West: 50 win teams - eight

Top five scoring teams
East: zero
West: five

Top five in points allowed
East: two (including numbers one and two)
West: three

But despite those gaudy, imbalanced numbers, the East's recent dominance in the NBA Finals has earned its teams the right to tell everyone to be quiet about how great the West is.

Dominance is winning three out of the past five trophies. Actually seems pretty balanced to me ... except when you look at the past ten seasons and see that seven out of ten were West teams.

The past few Western Conference teams in the Finals have had one very obvious character flaw:

Bad match-ups? Getting jobbed by refs? Simply playing poorly for a 4-7 game stretch, which could happen to anyone?

They've been softer than John Daly's midsection.

Ahhh, softness. Not being tough. Baskets are worth two points (sometimes three!), but body checks or punching the backstop after a dunk is worth five points.

The Mavericks mentally shrunk against the Heat in 2006.

Wade shot 97 free throws in six games. 16 per game. Again: that's nuts. It wasn't some wizard shrinking the minds of the Mavs - the Heat shot like sixty times as many free throws in the series.

The Mavs were also outscored this series by a total of six points. One game went to OT. Could it be *gasp* luck? No, mental shrinkage.

The Lakers were completely undressed by the Pistons in '04.

Sexy.

And this year, reigning MVP Kobe Bryant and his sidekick, Pau Gau-soft, were punk'd by the Celtics.

Call 911, we got a buuuuuurrrrn victim.

It's often been argued that if you entered Western Team A into the Eastern Conference, it'd either win the conference outright or at least be among the the East's top teams. But after watching how the Celtics annihilated the Lakers, how can that possibly be true?

Math. It's because of math.

The freakin' Golden State Warriors, who won 48 freakin' damn games, missed the freakin' playoffs in the freakin' overrated West!

They would have been the four-seed in the East, assuming they wouldn't blow out shitty teams like the Knicks, Bucks and Bobcats and get to 53+ wins. Hell, the damn Trailblazers, at 41-41, would be better than the Sixers, Hawks and Raptors - all East playoff teams.

The fact that teams get to 40+ wins in the deep-as-all-Hell West is a testament to how good these teams are at winning basketball games. I would argue that they would get many, many more wins in the East - where 37 wins gets you a spot in the playoffs.

At least in the East, there's no pretending. When Eastern Conference teams stink, they make it obvious (see: the 76ers', Nets' and Cavaliers' Finals appearances).

I've never been on a debate team, but I am pretty sure they teach you not to totally deflate your own argument.

"The East is better because when their teams are bad, they're bad. They aren't like 'we got 50 wins, but we secretly stink!'"

Summation: West teams = good, but not really good. East teams = sucky.

Bravas, Hill, bravas.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Best ESPN.com headline of all time - non-Chien Ming Wang/Bartolo Colon edition

Hooker wins 100-meter dash in 10.76 seconds

There must have been a crack rock at the finish line or something.

Friday, June 27, 2008

I don't care about TitleTown but there must be rules...

Here.

They have twice as many teams as 95% of other cities. Either shut up or they automatically win.

Page 2 subtly perpetuates falsities

The opposite of the "it's May, this guys rules!" is the "it's not April, things have changed!" They're similarly inane and pointless, with each having equal weight (none).

APRIL SEEMS SO LONG AGO

Brandon Webb: Unbeatable!

He didn't go 35-0?

Webb was 6-0 in April (and won his first nine starts). Since then, he's gone 2-4 in seven starts.


So he's really 5-4 after April?

In those seven starts:
The D-backs scored 14 runs, 2.0/start. Awesome.
Webb struck out 37 batters (5.3/start) and walked nine (1.3/start).
Webb pitched 42 and 2/3 innings, 6.1 IP/start.
Webb gave up 20 ER (2.8/start) and 6 unearned runs.

I'll take six+ innings, a 5:1 K/BB ratio and less than three earned runs every day of the week.

Chase Utley, best player in baseball!

Is still kind of true!

Meanwhile, fellow NL second sacker Dan Uggla is now having just as good a season as Utley.

Newsflash: "Just as good" now means "slightly worse."

Uggla: .290/.374/.625, 23 HR/57 RBI, 163 OPS+, .347 BABIP
Utley: .293/.382/.600, 22 HR/63 RBI, 151 OPS+, .287 BABIP

So yeah, everything is close. Except BABIP. If their BABIPs were switched, Utley would be blowing out Uggla. As it stands, they're even.

This write up is just as good as any other.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Dirty, shameless self-promotion

Although I've had some articles up on dugoutcentral.com, this most recent one, about the rumored Oswalt to Yankees for Cano/Kennedy deal, appearing on the YES Network is pretty rad.

ESPN, call me up!

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Note to NBA owners: Do not hire Chris Mannix as your GM

I am a pretty big NBA fan. Now, I don't get paid to write about it, so I doubt I know more than Chris Mannix at SI.com.

His article, mock drafting the NBA, might make me reconsider.

Before reading this, I quickly threw together my top eleven. Keep in mind this took all of ten minutes and I didn't have player ages handy. I also really overlooked Yao. Oops.

1. LeBron James - duh
2. Chris Paul - ditto
3. Kobe Bryant - nothing to see here
4. Deron Williams - underrated, slightly worse than Paul, but killed him head to head and has good size
5. Amare Stoudamire - monster, better than Howard
6. Gilbert Arenas - there are, at most, three other guys I want shooting the last shot of a game more than Gil
7. Dwight Howard - physical specimen, needs to work on moves
8. Carlos Boozer - most polished big man out of the three
9. Brandon Roy - crazy upside, next best PG
10. Josh Smith - best swingman/multifaceted player
11. Dwayne Wade - injured and it's mostly his own fault, has a lot to prove next season

2. Miami Heat: Dwight Howard, C, 22. Shot-blocking, physically intimidating, attack-the-rim centers are hard to come by. Actually, outside of Howard, they are nearly impossible. As he proved this past season in Orlando, Howard is capable of dominating even with undersized help.

Know what else is rare? Post players with actual basketball moves. Howard's best move is "slam a miss back down with one arm." 30% of his shots were dunks last year. That's nuts. And while he does block shots, he isn't really that good defensively. Ask Chris Bosh, who drops like 40 on him every time they play.

He also sucks from the line (59%) and turns the ball over a lot - 263 times last season, which was fourth highest. The top three (and much of the top ten) were all guards.

5. Memphis Grizzlies: Yao Ming, C, 27. Size? Check. Skills? Double-check. Aggressive personality? Check, check, check. He has shrugged off his passive demeanor and become fiercely competitive, perhaps the lone attribute that had stood between Yao and greatness. Well, that and better health.

Hasn't played more than 57 games since 2004-05? Check. Will play in the Olympics/various Chinese basketball leagues during the offseason, increasing his injury chances? Check. Loyalty lies in a freakin communist country? Check, check, check.

I may have overlooked Yao, but number five is way too high considering the age and injury problems.

6. New York Knicks: Kevin Garnett, PF, 32. Yes, with KG as your cornerstone, you will have to find a fourth-quarter scorer. But that's about all you will need to find to complement this ultimate team player and defensive menace.

That, and the fountain of youth. KG is 32. He has, what, 3-5 more years being this good? But this is the Knicks, so maybe Mannix is making an awesome, elaborate joke.

7. Los Angeles Clippers: Amaré Stoudemire, F/C, 25. Lingering questions about the health of his surgically repaired knees vanished after a 25.2-point, 9.1-rebound season in 2007-08. Dominating offense, questionable defense.

His defense is only as questionable as Howard's, but he doesn't send blocks to the 12th row, so I guess he sucks. He also has that sport-writer Viagra known as "playoff experience."

10. New Jersey Nets: Tim Duncan, F/C, 32. Only age keeps Duncan from going higher. Duncan operates out of the post like Bill Walton and is as fundamentally sound as they come. Unfortunately, the 11-year veteran has played nearly two full seasons in playoff games, meaning his decline should be only a few years away.

So put him at number ten! There can't be better players than a 32-year-old Duncan!

No 23-year-old Deron Williams, who I had at number four, yet...

14. Golden State Warriors: Greg Oden, C, 20. OK, so Oden hasn't played a game yet. But a 7-foot, 250-pound center with superior defensive ability has to be considered a franchise player. Any offensive skills he develops -- and he will develop them -- are a bonus.

Sam Bowie.

16. Philadelphia 76ers: Deron Williams, PG, 23. Big, strong, fast, good going to the basket and a lethal shooter.

Gets you number 16, behind Tony Parker, who's three years older and worse at basketball.

If Williams has any flaws, it's that at times he looks likes a shooting guard in a point guard's body.

If *Magic Johnson* has any flaws, it's that at times he looks like *every position* in *every position's body*.

17. Toronto Raptors: Paul Pierce, SF, 30. Pierce can get physical with smaller forwards and drive around bigger ones. A durable player (only one full season of fewer than 73 games),

Ugh. 30 years old. Better players on the board. Finals hangover?

the 10-year veteran proved in the NBA Finals that his defense is underrated.

Half the game is underrated.

20. Denver Nuggets: David West, PF, 27. West might be the most underrated 20-point scorer in the NBA. A dependable jump shooter, West will continue to grow as his inside game improves.

Paul is his PG. Paul is his PG. Paul is his PG. Paul is his PG. Paul is his PG. Paul is his PG.

Boozer, who is right after West, has been playing better longer, is a year younger and can board much better. Color me befuddled blue.

22. Orlando Magic: Brandon Roy, SG, 23. Roy is Dwyane Wade Lite, all the way down to his curiously spelled middle name (Dawayne). Nicknamed "The Natural," Roy attacks the basket with reckless abandon and, at 6-6, can play both guard positions.

Meanwhile, Deron Williams is a fatass.

23. Utah Jazz: Manu Ginobili, SG, 30.

24. Phoenix Suns: Steve Nash, PG, 34.

25. Houston Rockets: Richard Hamilton, SG, 30.

All guys over 30 with tons of playoff miles on them. Mannix understands we're drafting here right? Like, for the future?

Josh Smith (22!), Gasol (27), Igoudala (24), Durant (19!!!) and Redd (28) all (stupidly) come after them.

Baseball Stadium play list 2.0

When two of my loves converge into a Reese's peanut butter cup of awesome, I have to take the opportunity to write about it. A while back, I made a play list of songs that I deemed good for use during a baseball game. Well I am going to do it again. And yes, I am an uncreative jerk.

"Hey Muscles, I Love You" - Muscles
Usage: whenever

There was no way I was going to do this and not include Muscles. The electronic artist/party animal's music is perfect for a day of baseball. The song has great fan interaction possibilities - I am picturing Fenway and "Sweet Caroline" type shit.

It's simple, during the chorus stop the song right after the "Hey" and let the fans fill in a players name before cutting back to the song. For example: "Hey, *Jeter*, I love you, I wanna have your babies." If that isn't genius, I quit.

"The Magic Position" - Patrick Wolf
Usage: great defense (particularly a diving catch)

"It's you who puts me in the magic position." If that isn't the ultimate props to a coach's defensive placement for his center fielder, I don't know what is.

"Paper Planes" - M.I.A.
Usage: after a stolen base

The chorus is the meat of this choice - the cash register, "I fly like paper" line and family-friendly gun shots, make this the perfect soundtrack to a base theft.

"Crimewave" - HEALTH
Usage: literally anything, but great for late rally or closer theme

On the short list of songs for 2008 that allow me to run through a brick wall, this song - with it's tribal drums and dissonant guitar squeals - would send a stadium full of clones of me to the brink of frenzy. Just what the doctor ordered for a late-game comeback.

"Waving Flags" - British Sea Power
Usage: after a blowout win or closing in on a sweep

Although the song isn't about giving up like I want it to be, no one is going to know that. The "we're all waving flags now" is such an awesome kick in the pants to a downtrodden team, I couldn't pass up.

"Machine Gun" - Portishead
Usage: closer entrance music


It would have to be instrumental, but the 15 seconds or so on a loop would be scary as hell. Bonus points if your closer has goggles or facial hair - just seems fitting.

"Slaves Shall Serve" - Behemoth
Usage: closer theme

You know how closers come out to like Metallica and Ozzy and probably think it's badass? The opening 10 seconds of this song would make Jamie Moyer throw 100 mph, guaranteed.

"Set Fire to the Face on Fire" - The Blood Brothers
Usage: hot hitter to the plate, opposing batter strikes out on a fastball


Opening five seconds will do, thanks.

"Rich Girl" - Hall and Oates
Usage: harassing a high-paid free agent


There needs to be more songs aimed at harassing opposing players in sports. I am picturing Barry Zito hearing this every time he pitches on the road - probably at home too.

"Handle Me" - Robyn
Usage: pitcher striking someone out

Would juiced-up baseball players and fans appreciate the pop-y glory that is Robyn? No way. But the line "it's plain to see, you can't handle me" is undeniably perfect for a batter striking out on a curveball or some high heat.

"It's Tricky" - Run DMC (hilarious video)
Usage: any bunt or double steal, goofy error by opponent


Great song to punctuate any form of successful chicanery by your team - be it a double steal, suicide squeeze or hit and run. Also hilarious for an opposing outfielder dropping a pop fly or misplaying a ball.

"Bathory Erzsebet" - Sunn O)))
Usage: closer entrance


The 7+ minutes of a huge bell being rung (not in the Youtube vid) may have to be cut down a tiny bit, but once that first distorted riff kicks in (timed with the pitcher touching the rubber for the first time, of course), opposing batters will be soiling themselves.

"Intro (Never Back Down)" - Throwdown
Usage: trailing going into the ninth


Obscenity rules be fucking damned, this song is too adrenaline-pumping to not be played in a park. Especially like the "you fucking bastards!" part.

"March Of The Fire Ants" - Mastodon
Usage: clean-up or three hitter coming up to bat

Not much to say other than one great heavy opening.

"Bulls on Parade" - Rage Against the Machine
Usage: post-seventh inning rally


Great title and very good riff combine for a solid comeback song.


Thanks the hypem.com for directing me to all those wonderful music blogs with mp3s. As far as those mp3s go, just listen to them, don't download. If you like it, buy it and if any artist would like them taken down, I'd be happy to do so.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Tarvaris Jackson: Super Bowl quarterback

Dr. Z at SI.com is one of the most respected football writers around. So with the NBA Finals over and baseball being the only cat in town for a few months, football columns are starting to slowly creep out.

The good Dr. picks the Vikings to win it all. The Tarvaris Jackson-led Vikings. Yeah...

And I know where we're headed. Tarvaris Jackson, QB. Just 25 years old. Fine athlete, terrific scrambler, able to make big plays, but so far in his two years in the league, not enough of them.

T-jack games with two+ INT: four
... games with more than one TD pass: two (two TD in both)
... games with 200+ yards passing: four
... games with less than ten completions: four
... games with 40+ yards rushing: one

"'What can I tell you about Tavaris? Well, a quarterback has to be wired the right way, and he's wired that way. He doesn't show that he's sweating.'

[That was Vikings coach Brad Childress]

I picture a team of waterboys constantly wiping Jackson down to make sure no one sees his sweat.

"Besides the production,

Of which there is almost none

there's something to walking into the building every day and being the man. I mean every day. Tavaris is pretty good with that."


Being...good...man...building...man...pretty...good...that

So en fin, do I like the Vikings to go all the way? Well, yeah, why not?

Their most important position sucks?

Sunday, June 22, 2008

NY Post continues long tradition of solid writing

They're as common as the "this guy is having a killer May! MVP! MVP!" It's the "what a surprise this season has been so far!" Really? Everything didn't play out exactly as we though it would? You're kidding.

Imagine if on April 1 I had told you that the two best lefty starters in the AL were going to be Cleveland's Cliff Lee and Chicago's John Danks (or maybe the Angels' Joe Saunders and the Red Sox's Jon Lester)

I would say, "quit yer cherry-pickin' Joel Sherman!" Also, Danks is 4-4 with 66K/24BB and a 1.22 WHIP in 86 IP (not in the top 35 in for AL starters). I say "meh."

and the two that you thought it was going to be — Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia and Seattle's Erik Bedard — would be on the trading block by mid-June.


I would say, "Sabathia is only kinda sorta on the block and his contract is up. The Mariners stink/Bedard's last season may have been an abberation." Also, lefty AL starters still? Who's the best switch hitting NL catcher, Sherman?

Imagine if I had told you that a team (Oakland) that had traded its ace (Dan Haren) would have the majors' best rotation ERA

I would say, "Oakland is a well-run team that values solid pitching and has a really good farm system."

and the team (Seattle) that obtained an ace (Bedard) and signed the largest free-agent contract with a pitcher (Carlos Silva) would have the AL's worst rotation ERA.


I would say, "The Silva contract was fucking stupid."

Now we move to the point of the article, the surprise/disappointment teams.

Surprise
Jesus Flores, Nationals. Was up to .308 with a .525 slugging percentage to gain the starting job on a team that had signed Met discards Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada. But the Mets' problem is they lost a talented, young catcher when they did not protect Flores in the 2006 Rule 5 draft, but did protect — among others — Julio Franco, Alay Soler, Jon Adkins, Ben Johnson and Steve Schmoll.

MetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMets catcher with 120 ABs this season MetsMetsMetsMetsMetsMets.

Disappointment
Carl Crawford, Rays. He has produced between 54 and 63 extra-base hits over the past four seasons. He had just 17 in 2008 even with that game-altering grand slam Thursday against the Cubs.

Lay off, he's on pace for like 44 XBH this season.

Surprise
Jason Giambi, Yankees. As late as May 15, Giambi was hitting .181

Now at a robust .260.

and the conversation in town was who was more washed up Giambi or Carlos Delgado? But since then, he had hit .333 with a .698 slugging percentage and 10 homers. Want the biggest surprise: It is not impossible that the Yanks will want Giambi back next year.


Not Lance Berkman, who is batting like .600 with 50 HR and 200 RBI? Or Adrian Gonzalez, who has 20 HR playing in the canyon that is PETCO? Oh wait, those guys aren't Yankees/Mets...

Friday, June 20, 2008

MLB players kinda get it, then lose it again

A recent SI poll of 495 MLB players pegged Jeter as the most overrated player in the game. Ten percent of those polled voted for the Yankee captain.

Huzzah!

But in the previous edition of the poll, Jeter ranked second in "dude you'd want to build a team around" to A-rod.

*Frown*

Not like Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Braun, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Ryan Howard, David Wright, or Chase Utley?

Hit it Jason Giambi!

"Jeet's numbers speak for themselves. He has four World Series rings, plays shortstop."

Ramiro Mendoza's numbers speak for themselves. He has four World Series rings, plays SP/RP.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Adam Dunn apparently hates baseball

Update: According to ESPN, Ricciardi has apologized after pissing off baseball-hating Adam Dunn.

Adam Dunn is the darling of many stat geeks, myself included. He's a "three true outcomes" player (K, BB, HR), doesn't run well or play very good defense and remains one of the most under appreciated hitters in baseball.

JP Ricciardi, GM of the currently last in the AL East Toronto Blue Jays, dunnit want 'im.

In a radio interview he answers questions regarding Adam Git 'er Dunn and his disdain for the career he chose:

"Maybe we have more information and know the player a little more than the average fan."

This is a smug and arrogant answer. Of course you have more info on players than I do, you're the damn GM of a baseball team! If not, I will apply for your job when you're fired later this season.

"He's a lifetime .230-.240 hitter that strikes out a ton and hits home runs.

That would be more like .247, to be exact.

So is Ryan Howard (already over 100 K's this season to Dunn's 71). And Dan Uggla. Jim Thome. Reggie Jackson. Hell, Hanley Ramirez has only two less K's than Dunn this season. Striking out is not that bad, much better that grounding into double plays and only slightly, marginally worse than almost every other out.

Did you know the guy doesn't really like baseball that much? Did you know the guy doesn't have a passion to play the game that much?

Really? He doesn't like being paid millions of dollars to play a game that he is reasonably good at? Did Dunn tell you this personally? Or was this the word of Dusty "Clogging the Basepaths" Baker? Maybe you talked to Dunn's mom and dad? Magic 8-ball? Some sort of casting of bones?

Dunn has been playing pro baseball for eight seasons now. I find it very hard to believe he puts up with the grind of the season, fumbling around in the outfield, being criticized for striking out 200 times a season, for a something he "doesn't like all that much."

Not liking baseball that much:
256 HRs in less than eight seasons
Four straight 40 homer seasons heading into '08, with 18 as of June 19.
Career 130 OPS+ (ahead of HOFer Yaz, tied with Clemente and Boggs), .901 OPS (61 all-time and 21 among active players), .382 OPB which is good for someone who strikes out a lot.

Passion to play > skill.

I don't think you'd be very happy if we brought Adam Dunn here

If I was a Jays fan, I would be. But I am Red Sox fan, so you're right, I wouldn't be happy if he went to Toronto.

Being in last in your division = happy.

Toronto has scored 290 runs, third to last in the AL - just ahead of worst-record-in-baseball Seattle and terrible Kansas City - and 26 out of 30 in MLB. They also have the third freaking best ERA in the AL at 3.58 and the second most K's. If they get any sort of offense, they can contend. Tampa is probably not for real and a year or two away and the Red Sox don't look invincible.

Forget all this "he doesn't like baseball that much" bullshit and remember the guy is a lock for 40+ bombs and would be one of the top three or four DH's in the AL and drive in some runs for your worse-than-SF Giants-offense.

We've done our homework on guys like Adam Dunn and there's a reason why we don't want Adam Dunn."

That reason: the Jays hate winning.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Frank Deford's article rips the time space continuum

Go read this if you're bored. It is amazingly crazy. I thought about responding but I have no idea where to start.

There's a lead about alchemy and the word "hippopotamus." There's...that's actually what the whole thing is about. I have read it three times and still have no idea what's going on. Don't think about 1908? Doesn't the existence of this article.......... *head explodes*

American Blogiators: Season Two power rankings #2

Crush - 1
She keeps getting the Joust love and her domination continues. She's now six-for-six in that event with six KOs. Skytrack is proving itself to be a useless endeavor for the mortals (Gladiators are 11-for-12 with only 10 points allowed) so her results (two-for-two, no points) can essentially be ignored. The new event, Snapback, looks to be very difficult, so Crush's eight allowed in her first try there holds little water. She now leads AGs with 13 appearances.

Venom - 2
While getting little burn over the past few episodes, Venom is still doing fine. She simply added two Skytrack KOs to her solid numbers.

Justice - 3
Justice continues to prove he's one of the top male Gladiators. While not dominating, he added two KOs on Joust in two tries and eight points in two appearances in Assault. Snapback is hard and he let his human score eight points. This was a lean weak and it didn't seem like anyone wanted to take the third spot from Justice.

Titan - 4
One of the biggest risers this week, Titan moved up two spots on the strength of his Joust performances. Now four-for-four with four pretty nasty KOs, Titan is the slightly more manly Crush. But he also added a solid showing in Snapback, allowing only four points. Note: The episode where he "hulked out" was some ridiculous product placement.

Phoenix -
5
Phoenix is showing she isn't just a one-trick pony. Two-for-two on Hang Tough and perfect on one each Pyramid, Wall and Skytrack attempts has her tied for the biggest jump up in the rankings.

Wolf - 6
The darling of AG, Wolf did just enough to only move down one spot. He mirrored his previous Hang Tough stats (2APP/5PA/1KO), added a Skytrack KO and a mediocre Earthquake showing (2APP/1KO/1TKO).

Militia - 7

After being completely pedestrian in last edition of the rankings, Militia has added two Wall KOs and another Skytrack KO to his resume. That mocking dance he did after dominating a guy on Wall shows that maybe he's not so boring after all...

Rocket - 8
Taking the biggest dive in the rankings (four spots) Rocket is a complete one-hit wonder. He got absolutely beasted on Veritgo (15 points allowed in two tries) and is losing his Wall spots to Zen. That's embarassing.

Hellga - 9
Hellga ranks second in appearances among AGs and I am starting to feel bad for her. The producers keep trying to foster her success (invention of Snapback much?) and she just can't do it. She has six Assault showings, allowing 21 points with three kills. That's not bad, but it's not great. She did fine on Snapback, allowing four points, but didn't do well on the event that she should perform very well in - Tilt (2APP/1KO/1TKO/10PA).

Toa - 10
My favorite stereotype on the show, Toa managed to move up one spot with a hold on Pyramid and a meh Tilt performance (2APP/1KO/1TKO/10PA). Goes to show you how little he had to do to move up.

Zen - 11
Zen is quickly becoming one of my least favorite Gladiators. The three-for-three Wall score is fine (despite one of those being an idiot simply falling when he was inches from winning) but he's the only AG to lose on Skytrack. That'll get you near the bottom.

Jet - 12
Jet is pretty awful. She's allowed a whopping 15 points on Wall - only one other AG has more than zero points allowed. The two-for-two on Vertigo is alright and the one Skytrack KO is pointless. Uninspiring overall.

Hurricane - 13
The new roided-up emo singer, Hurricane only worked the rope on Tilt. He did do well, allowing five points with a KO in two tries. But that's it. He's one of the three new Gladiators who debuted since the last rankings so, merely by amount of appearances, they rank down here.

Steel - 14
A KO and a tie on Earthquake. Whatever.

Siren - 15
Burned on Wall for 10 points? Good to have you back Siren.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Add this to the list of reasons to dislike Joe Buck

Joe Buck. You hate him, I hate him, almost every sports fan I know hates him. He handled broadcasting duties this past Sunday during the Red Sox/Reds contest and was speaking about Mario Soto's influence on some of the Reds young pitchers.

"If he [Soto] was on better teams, he'd be walking into the Hall of Fame."

So me, being a picky jerk, decided to look up Mr. Soto's numbers.

About that walk into the Hall...

W/L - 100/92
So this is probably where Buck is on point. With a career 3.47 ERA (which is pretty good) he could have had more than 100 wins with better run support. In a season where he had a 2.79 ERA, his W/L was 14-13. Point for Buck.

ERA/WHIP - 3.47/1.18
The WHIP is actually pretty good, better than HOFers like Gibson and Spahn. Granted, those guys pitched for longer than Soto's 12 seasons, but, oh well. The ERA is tied with a lot of people for 392 all-time. Looking around the 390+ range, I only see Glavine as someone who has a similar ERA and is in (when the time comes) the Hall. We split this one.
Buck: 2 Me: 1.

K/BB - 1449/657
His K's are good for 185 all-time, which is pretty solid considering the 12 seasons. Ahh but that bugaboo known as the walk hurts Soto. He's ranked 806 in BB/9IP, behind studs like Kid Gleason, Johnny Allen and Bobby Bolin. Again, split decision.
Buck: 3 Me: 2.

ERA+ - 108
League average is 100. Yeah, 108 is not that good. He's tied with many others for 353 all-time including Tim Wakefield, David Wells and Mike Boddicker. That's one for me.
Buck: 3 Me: 3.

Cy Youngs/All-Star games - 0/3
He finished 5, 9, 2, 6 in Cy voting over his career. Now however dumb award voting is, that's not very good. Sure, wins are a big part of it (as are better pitchers who pitched the same time as him), but I'd counter with the all-star appearances. He was only good enought to be voted to three ASGs? And he's going to walk into the Hall?
Buck: 3 Me: 5.

HOF Standard/Monitor score - 15/27
The average HOFer has scores of about 50 and 100, respectively. So like four Mario Sotos would just barely be a HOF pitcher. Good to know.

Remember Glavine, who has a higher career ERA than Soto? His HOF Monitor score is 176. Pitchers with a 27: Danny Graves and Mike Meyers.
A billion points for me.
Buck: 3 Me: 1,000,000,005.

Winner!

Friday, June 13, 2008

Parade Raining: Mr. Ryan Ludwick

Quick - name the NL MVP so far this season...

Utley? Berkman? Chipper? Hanley? Pujols?

Nope. It's Ryan Ludwick.

So in a year where Chase Utley, Lance Berkman, and Chipper Jones are putting up monstrous numbers in the National League, for your consideration I give you…

Ryan Ludwick.

Ludwick should get some serious consideration for his league’s top honor at the end of the year.

A few things to consider:
It's June 13.
There are ~90 games left for teams.
A certain best hitter in the game with a .475 OBP bats near or around Ludwick.
It's June. 13. 90+ games to play.

I'm not saying don't do these "This dude is having an MVP-type season on May 1!" (although it's advisable not to) but can't we wait until post-All-Star break, at the very least?

On June 11th, the day the Cardinals placed all-universe slugger Albert Pujols on the DL with a calf injury; Ludwick hit his team leading 16th home run, good for 6th in the National League.

I smell a "he rose to the occasion, put his team on his muscular back and willed them to victory" moment here.

Now that Pujols is out of the lineup, besides Ludwick, who do pitchers fear, at all, in that batting order? I would venture a bet that he cools off very soon.

His other numbers through June 11th were just as spicy.

Mmmm!!

Ludwick was 6th in the National League in batting with a .321 average, 2nd in Slugging with a lofty .684 and his On-Base Percentage was a robust .393.

Ludwick's non-spicy, non-MVP teammate's numbers: .347 AVG/.631 SLG/.475 OBP. Oh, and the order is AVG/OBP/SLG - it just makes it hard when you do them out of order.

His 52 runs batted in are good for 4th place.

Pujols' 42=shit.

His 37 extra-base hits are good for 6th place.

Pujols' 31=garbage.

And for all you Sabermetric

Adding

types out there, his 1.055 OPS is good for 4th place. And he currently has 51 Runs Created, good for 10th in the NL.

Pujols' 1.105 OPS=third. His 69 RC=fourth.

When you consider that this is Ludwick’s first season as a full time player, the numbers become even more impressive.

This is a typo. He meant to type "less" instead of more.

Flukes happen in baseball. A lot, actually. Ever heard of Brady Anderson? And a million other players who hit a lot of homers and then did nothing?

Pujols (and Utley/Berkman/Chipper) have been good for long periods of time, making their numbers much more legit. Would anyone be surprised if Ludwick hit zero homers the rest of the season? Not me.

Add to those numbers this interesting fact: Ludwick is on pace to ground into only 6 double plays for the entire 2008 season. Throw in his solid if not spectacular play in right field and you have not only an All Star in the making but most definitely a legitimate MVP candidate.

New MVP criterion: not GIDP and playing averge-to-below-average defense!

Also, missing comas.

The numbers that Ludwick is putting up are very similar to the numbers his perennial MVP candidate teammate Albert Pujols puts up year in and year out.

Including this year (pre-injury) that are/were greater than or equal to Ludwick's.

And Pujols, from 2001 to 2006, finished no lower than 4th in the NL MVP voting.

Conclusion: Ludwick=Pujols.

Now, I realize that Utley, Berkman and Chipper will all most likely, if they don’t get hurt and continue on their current paces, have as good if not better season than Ludwick. But they were all supposed to have great seasons.

Jerks. Consistently good at baseball assfaces.

Ludwick’s year is like that little film I described earlier. It catches everyone off guard. This may be to his advantage come voting time.

I doubt it.

MVP voter #1: So about this Ludwick kid.
MVP voter#2: Who? Someone I've never heard of/talked to daily/wrote a puff piece about? Must. Not. Vote.

/Hanley Ramirez rant.

The next three to six weeks will really tell the tale. Pujols will be gone for at least 15 games, and maybe twice that. ... But if the Cardinals keep pace, or better still, catch and pass the Cubs in that time span, and Ludwick leads the charge on the field and in the batter’s box, he will have to be taken more than seriously.

He may be the front runner.

Other damning Ludwick stats:

.361 BABIP leading to inflated BA
24 BB/51 K rate
A career .268 average over 800 ABs
However stupid, the Cards not being in first
Pujols being hurt
Cardinals lineup being bad
It being June.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Meeting between guys who choose the NBA Finals soundtrack

Guy #1: Thank God the Celtics made the finals.
Guy #2: Why? The storied rivalry? The two best records in the league playing each other?
Guy #1: No, dumbass. It makes our job easier. *Pulls out milk crate full of dusty vinyl*
Guy #2: What is that?
Guy #1: They're my old records - from high school.
Guy #2: ...
Guy #1: Ever heard this gem? *takes out Boston's Boston*
Guy #2: Umm yeah, I think so. It's Journey, right?
Guy #1: Nope. Motherfucking Boston. That's where the Celtics are from!
Guy #2: Yeah, I get it. Didn't that album come out like, 30 years ago?
Guy #1: So what!? The classics never die.
Guy #2: Can't we use something more...contemporary?
Guy #1: See, this is why I am supervisor. NBA fans are all old and white. They wouldn't know Kanye West from Adam West.
Guy #2: *Looks at Boston* There are maybe three songs on this I've heard.
Guy #1: So? The band's fucking called Boston. It's a goldmine! People will love our cleverness! Besides, we can just shuffle those three songs, no one will notice or care. *Singing* We were just another band out of Bostooooon, on the road tryin to make ends meeeet...
Guy #2: How about like the Pixies? They're from Boston.
Guy #1: The whosies? What kind of gay shit is that?
Guy #2: Or maybe Dinosaur Jr.? The Cars? Even Aerosmith? They're all from Boston.
Guy #1: *Singing, playing air guitar* More than a feeeeeeeeeling, when I hear that old song plaayyyy. It's more than a feellleeeing.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Wojo forgets what he's writing about mid-article

So Gene Wojochoiwewoasksie at ESPN wrote an article about how Chicago is the new CRAZY-town. The points about Ozzie Guillen, Carlos Zambrano and Cedric Benson are all fine. Even though almost every other major sports city has similar characters, but whatever.

But things quickly degrade into what can only be called madness. Or pointlessness.

• And, oh, the Cubs have the best record in baseball.

This is crazy...how?

• The No. 2 pick in the 2008 WNBA draft, Sylvia Fowles, lasted exactly five Chicago Sky games before she injured her knee.

A WNBA reference?!?!?! I take it all back, Chicago is cwazy! In other news, the Chicago MLS team, the Fire, scored a goal during a game.

• Chicago was named one of four finalists for the 2016 Summer Olympics.

Cool, sure. Crazy? No. It's also eight years away, when probably half the other crap in this article will be passe.

• A former high school hoops player who has a home in Chicago won a big race. Maybe you've heard of him: Barack Obama.

Not sports related or crazy? Sign me up!

Amount of times "tough" and "hustle" appear in this article: 32562495

A certain Los Angeles basketball team is facing a certain Boston basketball team in contention for a giant gold basketball trophy thing. It's kind of a big deal.

Boston is up 2-0 in the best of seven series. What's the reason? Paul Pierce playing crazy-good? Shots not dropping for Kobe? Odom and Gasol not showing up? Home court? Rondo killing Fisher? Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. All that is much too obvious and written about. How about...

Hustle. Defense. Intensity. Intangibles. Grit. Guts. Gutty grits. Gritty guts.

Lakers need to blame defense, not refs

They should probably blame the refs, at least a little. 38-10 free-throw differential is insane. And it was like 38-2 until the fourth quarter.

So let me let me identify another cause: defense.

Sound argument. I can't wait for the stats Mr. Kriegal will use to back this up! (spoiler alert: they never come)

And yet another: hustle.

Ugh.

The reason for Boston winning is because they simply tried harder than those fairies in LA. Not a ridiculous FT diff. or better rebounding or Kobe notching as many points as shots taken or KG being unguardable.

To this point, Boston has been vastly superior in the coachable, if under-measured facets of the game.

They're not under-measured, they're immeasurable. But I suppose that's why you have a job - telling me, part of the unwashed masses, that a team is winning by some mysterious way that only you, the sportswriter can see.

I'm not pronouncing the Lakers dead, not yet. I covered the '93 Knicks, who jumped out to a 2-0 lead on the Bulls with John Starks dunking over Michael Jordan. You know how that one turned out.

No, I don't know how "that one turned out." It was 15 years ago. I assume Jordan won.

But the Celtics — and I didn't think too much of them going into the Finals — have played as if they want it more.

Things sportswriters can intuit that mortals can't: who "wants it more."

Take Ray Allen, the weak link in Boston's so-called Big Three. A few weeks ago, it seemed as though his star status was about to be permanently revoked ... But he never took a possession off on defense.

Never. Not once. In "possessions taken 'on' on defense," Allen is a perfect 120-for-120.

He's also allowed Kobe to score 30 and 24 points. Did Kobe take a lot of shots? Yes. But Allen hasn't suddenly morphed into Bruce Bowen.

The league's Most Valuable Player went 9-for-26 in Game 1 and 11-for-23 in Game 2.

9-for-26 is pretty bad, but 11-23 is like 50 percent, which is not.

Fact: the Lakers are getting out-toughed and out-hustled by Ray Allen. The tough team that beat the Spurs in five games has gone soft.

The Ray Allen Hustlers: 2
The Kobe Braynt Loafers: 0

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

I'm not saying Jayson Stark is wrong, just not right

Jayson Stark. Smart dude, good writer. 

Over at his most recent installment of "That's Debatable," wherein he debates things that "are debatable," he talks about Griffey Jr. and Manny Ramirez, who are at or near milestones of 600 and 500 home runs, respectively.

It's close as to whose better, so props to Stark for taking a stand. But slops to his logic. 

Griffey suffered a million injuries and could have somewhere between 800 and 900 homers, which is insane. I also have basic researching skills and can look things up, so I know Manny has played less than Griffey. Let's see where this goes.

You can certainly argue Ramirez was a more complete hitter than Griffey (.312 average to Griffey's .289, .408 on-base percentage to Griffey's .373, .591 slugging percentage to Griffey's .550). And it's impossible to dispute that Manny has had the steadier career

All very convincing. Let me add some more, seeing as I know the outcome of the article (spoiler alert: it's not Manny).

Seasons: Griffey - 20 Manny - 16
OPS+: Griffey - 139 Manny - 154
Silver Slugger awards: Grif - 7 Man Ram - 9
All Star games: G - 13 M - 11
MVP finishes: Griffey - 19, 9, 17, 5, 2, 4, 1, 4, 10 Manny - 12, 6, 3, 6, 9, 9, 6, 3, 4, 18

All very close. Except seasons. And OPS+. 

Manny still has a few more seasons in him, and could, mayyyyybe, get to 600. For some reason this four season gap is never mentioned. 

Well, let's start with some basic mathematics. Last time I checked, 600 was a lot bigger number than 500. 

One hundred bigger, actually. Which is a whopping 2.5 of Manny's 162 game average of 41 homers. Did I mention Manny is four seasons behind Griffey?

And 20 is bigger than 16. 

Manny was the 24th name in the ever-swelling 500-Homer Club. 

I assume this is steroids-era dig. Why oh why are players who achieve certain landmarks (which are arbitrary, by the way) later than those before them, penalized? In 50 years, when Albert Pujols III joins the other 40 members of the 500 home run club, is it any less important than say, Jimmie Foxx? 

There are going to be more and more awesome players of the game of baseball as the years go on. More and more are going to hit 500 home runs. It's just the way things work. Players aren't going to suddenly stop hitting home runs for long periods of time. 

Griffey will be joining only Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays and Sammy Sosa in the 600-Homer Club. Big difference.

Big diff. 40% of those guys probably used steroids. As opposed to 41%* in the 500 home run club. 

Yes, joining a group of five is cooler than a group of 24. But Manny could join that group when he's done. For the one hundredth time: Griffey has played longer. Manny, less so.

But of course, Griffey also has a few other attributes. Like 10 consecutive Gold Gloves, a unanimous MVP award, three Players Choice awards, a spot on the All-Century Team and another spot on the all-time Rawlings Gold Glove team. Among other things.

Griffey was absolutely a better defender. But Gold Gloves are silly, they're given to whoever won it the previous year and I doubt the committee (if one exists) uses any metrics beyond "fielding %" and "plays that made me scream 'WEB GEM!'"

Unanimous MVP is pretty rad, a spot on the all-century team is essentially meaningless, as it had no criteria and I have no idea what the hell a players choice award is. If it's anything like the Nickelodeon Kid's Choice Awards, then it's awesome.

And "among other things" is straight-up lazy.

With all apologies to the Manny Being Manny Fan Club, I deduct points for all those jogs to first base, week-long midseason vacations and inability to fit spring training into our man Manny's busy schedule.

Ugh. Double ugh. Triple ugh. These have nothing to do with Manny's ability to play baseball. 

I deduct points from Griffey for being on the Mariners, having a kickass baseball video game and playing with his dad.

Plus, I guess I missed the news about those 10 Gold Glove trophies Manny secretly won.

Ohhhhhhh snap. Epic burn. 

After he picks Griffey, Stark opens it up for comments. Some of which are not completely moronic.

Dave (Colorado Springs): We always talk a lot in Major League Baseball about stats and comparing one to another to determine greatness, when in the end, the only thing that matters is winning. ... How many championship teams has Griffey been on again?

Jayson Stark: You know, you make a valid point. But I'm always hesitant to make judgments about any player based on how many rings he might wear. If we're going to use that standard, then I guess Luis Sojo was a greater player than Griffey. So I'm fine with factoring in championships, but I'm not so fine with using them as any firm barometer.

But how many gloves of gold they wear, I am totally down with.

*made up figure